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A fiscal rule to achieve debt sustainability in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • María Angélica Arbeláez
  • Miguel Benítez
  • Roberto Steiner
  • Oscar Valencia

Abstract

Con el fin de mejorar la sostenibilidad fiscal y recuperar el “grado de inversión”, en 2011 Colombia implementó una regla fiscal (RF) sobre el balance estructural del Gobierno Nacional Central. El grado de inversión se alcanzó rápidamente y los objetivos de la RF se cumplieron hasta 2019. Utilizando el Método de Control Sintético, proporcionamos evidencia de que la RF promovió la disciplina fiscal en el país. Sin embargo, no impidió que la deuda pública haya aumentado continuamente, sobrepasando 60% del PIB en 2020, en gran parte como consecuencia de la pandemia. A lo largo de este estudio sostenemos que la RF debería reformarse para incorporar un ancla de deuda. Utilizando un modelo de cambio de régimen y la metodología del FMI para calibrar reglas fiscales, mostramos que el nivel de deuda prudente no debe exceder el 48% del PIB y que para lograrlo en el mediano plazo se requiere una combinación de política fiscal que aumente los ingresos tributarios a 17,8% del PIB (desde 15,5% durante 2016-2019) y que reduzca el gasto primario a 15% (del 16% durante 2016-2019). El desempeno de la RF también se beneficiaría de cambios en su diseno institucional.

Suggested Citation

  • María Angélica Arbeláez & Miguel Benítez & Roberto Steiner & Oscar Valencia, 2021. "A fiscal rule to achieve debt sustainability in Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 51, pages 13-35, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:019957
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 13829, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Philipp Rother, 2014. "Fiscal sustainability using growth-maximizing debt targets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 638-647, February.
    3. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    4. Raúl Alberto Chamorro Narváez & Andrés Felipe Urrea Bermúdez, 2016. "Incidencia de las reglas fiscales en la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública territorial en Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 35(Especial ), pages 207-251, January.
    5. Mauricio Olivera & Monica Pachon & Guillermo Perry, 2010. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Reform: The Case of Colombia, 1986-2006," Research Department Publications 4674, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/028, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Oscar M. Valencia & Gustavo A. Sánchez, 2024. "Debt affordability in developed and emerging market economies: the role of fiscal rules," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 377-393, June.
    2. Andrian, Leandro Gaston & Valencia, Oscar & Hirs, Jorge & Urrea Rios, Ivan Leonardo, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Economic Cycles: Quality (Always) Matters," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12639, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reglas Fiscales; Deuda Pública; Método de Control Sintético; Ancla en Deuda;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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