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Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should Latin America and the Caribbean Be?

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  • Andrew Powell
  • Pilar Tavella

Abstract

This paper analyzes capital inflow surges to emerging economies. Probit models estimated on the period 1980-2005 discriminate well between surges associated with banking crises or recessions, and those that end without such events. The composition of inflows and the extent of financial reform are significant determinants of outcomes. Applying the models to LAC we find relatively high estimated probabilities for recessions and lower probabilities for banking crises for post- 2005 surges. While there were no financial crises in LAC 7 countries, some surges may have contributed to the slowdown in growth. Our results constitute a prima-facie case for macro- prudential interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2015. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should Latin America and the Caribbean Be?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-37, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000425:012568
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    4. Ilgaz Arikan & Asli M. Arikan & Oded Shenkar, 2022. "Revisiting emerging market multinational enterprise views: The Goldilocks story restated," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(4), pages 781-802, June.
    5. Alimov, Behzod, 2022. "The dynamic effects of debt and equity inflows: Evidence from emerging and developing countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    6. Lukanima, Benedicto Kulwizira & Sanchez-Barrios, Luis Javier & Gómez-Bravo, Yuli Paola, 2024. "Towards understanding MILA stock markets integration beyond MILA: New evidence between the pre-Global financial crisis and the COVID19 periods," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 478-497.
    7. Fulgence Dominick Waryoba, 2018. "Yuan Revaluation and China’s External Trade Performance," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 4(2), pages 112-119, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Banking crisis; Financial crisis; Probit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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