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On Endogenous Risk, the Amplification Effects of Financial Systems and Macro Prudential Policies

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  • Majnoni, Giovanni
  • Powell, Andrew

Abstract

The recent global financial crisis has put the spotlight on macro-prudential policies to protect firms and households from problems emanating from the financial sector. This paper proposes an analytical framework that combines exogenous and endogenous risks, the latter seen as stemming from frictions in financial markets. Arguing that endogenous risks may be systemic and costly, the paper employs a database of emerging market corporate bond spreads and finds evidence that endogenous risks are present and have amplified the effects of financial crises. Larger financial systems are found to exacerbate the impact of crises, and weaker financial systems are found to exacerbate particularly the impact of banking crises. The results suggest that policymakers should monitor time-varying systemic risks using both price and quantity signals and take actions in good times to mitigate potential amplifying effects at times of stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Majnoni, Giovanni & Powell, Andrew, 2011. "On Endogenous Risk, the Amplification Effects of Financial Systems and Macro Prudential Policies," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3804, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:3804
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2015. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should Latin America and the Caribbean Be?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-37, February.
    2. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2012. "Whither Capitalism? Financial Externalities and Crisis," International Economic Association Series, in: Franklin Allen & Masahiko Aoki & Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Roger Gordon & Joseph E. S (ed.), The Global Macro Economy and Finance, chapter 7, pages 131-153, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2012. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?," Research Department Publications 4782, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2012. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?," Research Department Publications 4782, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IDB-WP-276; Macro-prudential policies; Financial crises; Systemic risk; Financial Risk Management; economic policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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