IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/udt/wpbsdt/veinticinco.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Capital Inflows and Capital Outflows: Measurement, Determinants, Consequences

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Powell
  • Dilip Ratha
  • Sanket Mohapatra

Abstract

This paper develops new estimates of capital outflows and is the first, to our knowledge, to analyze the determinants, consequences and inter-relationship between inflows and outflows. Given the dynamics and individual country effects, we use a panel-VAR and find that inflows and outflows are inter-related, that lower inflows/higher outflows lead to lower growth, and among other effects to a higher fiscal deficit, which feeds back to lower inflows/higher outflows. These results provide evidence of vicious and virtuous cycles. We find no strong evidence that official flows crowd-in private ones. We conclude it is particularly important for developing countries to maintain prudent policies, and especially adequate fiscal discipline, to avoid vicious and reinforce virtuous cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Powell & Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra, 2002. "Capital Inflows and Capital Outflows: Measurement, Determinants, Consequences," Business School Working Papers veinticinco, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:veinticinco
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.utdt.edu/departamentos/empresarial/cif/pdfs-wp/wpcif-072002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael P. Dooley & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1994. "Capital flight, external debt, and domestic policies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-37.
    2. William R. Cline, 1995. "International Debt Reexamined," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 46, January.
    3. Michael P. Dooley, 1988. "Capital Flight: A Response to Differences in Financial Risks," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 422-436, September.
    4. Anke Hoeffler & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Paul Collier, 1999. "Flight Capital as a Portfolio Choice," IMF Working Papers 1999/171, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Income distribution, political instability, and investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1203-1228, June.
    6. Alberto Alesina & Ignazio Angeloni & Federico Etro, 2005. "International Unions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 602-615, June.
    7. Mr. Simeon Inidayo Ajayi, 1997. "An Analysis of External Debt and Capital Flight in the Severely Indebted Low Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 1997/068, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Chang, P H Kevin & Claessens, Stijn & Cumby, Robert E, 1997. "Conceptual and Methodological Issues in the Measurement of Capital Flight," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 101-119, April.
    9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    10. Prakash Loungani & Paolo Mauro, 2001. "Capital Flight from Russia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 689-706, May.
    11. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "External debt, capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 199-220, November.
    12. Kant, Chander, 1998. "Capital Inflows and Capital Flight – Individual Countries Experience," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 13, pages 644-661.
    13. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andes, 1992. "The Tragedy of the Commons and Economic Growth: Why Does Capital Flow from Poor to Rich Countries?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1208-1231, December.
    14. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2000. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_00-2.
    15. kant, C., 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Capital Flight," Princeton Studies in International Economics 80, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    16. Chinn, Menzie D. & Dooley, Michael P. & Shrestha, Sona, 1999. "Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 659-681, August.
    17. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
    18. Claessens, Stijn & Naude, David, 1993. "Recent estimates of capital flight," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1186, The World Bank.
    19. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 1998. "The Effect of Financial Liberalization on Capital Flight in African Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1349-1368, July.
    20. Eggerstedt, Harald & Hall, Rebecca Brideau & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1995. "Measuring capital flight: A case study of Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 211-232, February.
    21. Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "Local Corruption and Global Capital Flows," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 303-354.
    22. Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "Why Does China Attract So Little Foreign Direct Investment?," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development, pages 239-265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. A. Abalkin & J. Whalley, 1999. "The Problem of Capital Flight from Russia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 421-444, May.
    24. Seungjin Kim, 2000. "Effects of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Home Country Performance: Evidence from Korea," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development, pages 295-317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Konstantin Loukine, 1998. "Estimation of Capital Flight from Russia: Balance of Payments Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 603-611, July.
    26. Nathan Sheets, 1995. "Capital flight from the countries in transition: some theory and empirical evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 514, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. Terry Sicular, 1998. "Capital Flight and Foreign Investment: Two Tales From China and Russia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 589-602, July.
    28. Lisa M. Schineller, 1997. "An econometric model of capital flight from developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 579, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Yilmaz Akyüz & Andrew Cornford, 2000. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries of the International Financial System," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2000-190, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    30. D. Trinder, 1997. "Determinants of Capital Flight and Implications for Policy," Working Papers 371, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    31. Philip A. Curry, 1998. "Copyright, Copy Protection and Feist," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 9803, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    32. Nathan Sheets, 1996. "Capital flight from the countries in transition: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 259-277.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adler, Gustavo & Djigbenou, Marie-Louise & Sosa, Sebastian, 2016. "Global financial shocks and foreign asset repatriation: Do local investors play a stabilizing role?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 8-28.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 21427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Caporin, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele & Jannin, Gregory & Maillet, Bertrand, 2018. "“On the (Ab)use of Omega?”," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-33.
    4. Cavallo, Eduardo & Powell, Andrew & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Tavella, Pilar, 2015. "A new taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops should countries be most concerned about?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 47-70.
    5. Monica Billio & Bertrand Maillet & Loriana Pelizzon, 2022. "A meta-measure of performance related to both investors and investments characteristics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1405-1447, June.
    6. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2015. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should Latin America and the Caribbean Be?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-37, February.
    7. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2002. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior : evidence from panel vector autoregression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2913, The World Bank.
    8. Peyman Alipour & Ali Foroush Bastani, 2023. "Value-at-Risk-Based Portfolio Insurance: Performance Evaluation and Benchmarking Against CPPI in a Markov-Modulated Regime-Switching Market," Papers 2305.12539, arXiv.org.
    9. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    10. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2012. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?," Research Department Publications 4782, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    11. Philippe Bernard & Najat El Mekkaoui De Freitas & Bertrand B. Maillet, 2022. "A financial fraud detection indicator for investors: an IDeA," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 809-832, June.
    12. Suhas Ketkar & Dilip Ratha, 2009. "Innovative Financing for Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6549.
    13. Massimiliano Caporin & Grégory M. Jannin & Francesco Lisi & Bertrand B. Maillet, 2014. "A Survey On The Four Families Of Performance Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 917-942, December.
    14. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    15. Andrew Powell, 2012. "The World of Forking Paths: Latin America and the Caribbean Facing Global Economic Risks," Research Department Publications 4766, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    16. Ratha, Dilip & Mohapatra, Sanket & Plaza, Sonia, 2008. "Beyond aid : new sources and innovative mechanisms for financing development in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4609, The World Bank.
    17. Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2012. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?," Research Department Publications 4782, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan & Goran Vukšić, 2011. "The costs of moving money across borders and the volume of capital flight: the case of Russia and other CIS countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 717-744, November.
    2. Marcella Mulino, 2002. "On the determinants of capital flight from Russia," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(2), pages 148-169, June.
    3. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink & Victor Murinde, 2002. "Flight Capital and its Reversal for Development Financing," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Vukšić, Goran, 2013. "Capital Flight in the Presence of Domestic Borrowing: Evidence from Eastern European Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 32-46.
    5. Beja Jr, Edsel, 2010. "Balance of Payments-consistent unreported flows," MPRA Paper 21699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Flight capital as a portfolio choice," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2066, The World Bank.
    7. Seung-Gwang Baek & Doo Yong Yang, 2010. "Institutional Quality, Captal Flight and Capital Flows," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 26, pages 121-155.
    8. Melike Altinkemer, 1996. "Capital Flows : The Turkish Case," Discussion Papers 9601, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Abroskin A.S. (Аброскин, А.С.) & Abroskina N.A. (Аброскина, Н.А.), 2016. "Shadow Cross-Border Capital Flows: Contemporary Concepts, Principles and Information Base of Accounting and Measurement [Теневые Трансграничные Потоки Капитала: Современные Концепции, Принципы И Ин," Working Papers 2135, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    10. Yin‐Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 227-247, May.
    11. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2009. "Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 175-189, May.
    12. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
    13. Ljungwall, Christer & Wang, Zijian, 2008. "Why is capital flowing out of China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-372, September.
    14. Goldstein, Morris, 1995. "Coping with too much of a good thing : policy responses for large capital inflows in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1507, The World Bank.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    16. Siranova, Maria & Tiruneh, Menbere Workie & Fisera, Boris, 2021. "Creating the illicit capital flows network in Europe – Do the net errors and omissions follow an economic pattern?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 955-973.
    17. Sadik, Ali T. & Bolbol, Ali A., 2003. "Arab External Investments: Relation to National Wealth, Estimation, and Consequences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 1771-1792, November.
    18. Fouzia Amin & Sanmugam Annamalah, 2013. "An evaluation of Malaysian capital controls," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 549-571, August.
    19. Michael P. Dooley & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1994. "Capital flight, external debt, and domestic policies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-37.
    20. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2004. "Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness: Political Economy Considerations," Economics Study Area Working Papers 72, East-West Center, Economics Study Area, revised Sep 2004.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:veinticinco. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nicolás Del Ponte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eeutdar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.