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L'impact des chocs externes dans les economies du Mercosur : un modele var structurel

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  • Celine Gimet

Abstract

Cette etude vise a determiner les causes de la destabilisation des pays du Mercosur ces dernieres annees, a l’origine du flottement des monnaies. A l’aide d’un VAR structurel, nous analysons l’impact d’une politique monetaire restrictive des Etats-Unis, d’une baisse de la confiance des marches financiers, et d’une hausse des prix mondiaux des produits agricoles sur les secteurs reel, financier et monetaire de ces pays. La vulnerabilite des economies a ces chocs revele le defaut de soutenabilite des regimes de change en place durant cette periode. En outre, bien que les reactions des pays a chaque type de choc soient proches, des divergences subsistent du fait de l’heterogeneite des structures macroeconomiques et financieres des pays.

Suggested Citation

  • Celine Gimet, 2007. "L'impact des chocs externes dans les economies du Mercosur : un modele var structurel," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 110, pages 107-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2007-2td
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L'impact des chocs externes sur et dans la zone euro : un modèle VAR structurel," CEPN Working Papers hal-00493384, HAL.
    3. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "The viability of an economic and monetary union in Africa with a unified currency: evidence from the African economies' reactions to the international income, price and monetary shocks," Working Papers hal-00851594, HAL.
    4. ASIANI, Freddy, 2020. "La sensibilité de l'économie congolaise face aux chocs monétaire et budgétaire : une approche en modèle var standard [The sensitivity of the congolese economy to monetary and budgetary shocks: a st," MPRA Paper 101255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jonas Kibala Kuma, 2018. "Structural VAR Model : Theory review and practices on software [Le Modèle VAR Structurel : Eléments de théorie et pratiques sur logiciels]," Post-Print cel-01771221, HAL.
    6. Nassirou, Aïchat, 2017. "Chocs macroéconomiques et intégration d’une union économique et monétaire: cas du Nigéria [Macroeconomic shocks and integration of an economic and monetary union: case of Nigeria]," MPRA Paper 79167, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mohamed BELHEDI & Ines SLAMA & Amine LAHIANI, 2015. "Tranmission Of International Shocks To An Emerging Small Open-Economy: Evidence From Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 231-258.
    8. Giscard Assoumou Ella, 2013. "Impact of international income, prices and monetary shocks on real exchange rate in eight African economies: An empirical study," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(3), pages 41-54, September.
    9. Marine COUPAUD, 2014. "Contagion Des Crises De 1997 Et 2008 En Asean+3 : Un Modèle Var Structurel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 40, pages 113-138.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chocs internationaux; Mercosur; modele VAR structurel; restrictions contemporaines et de long terme; taux de change; regime de change; chocs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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