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Die Entwicklung der Arbeitslosenquote: Ein langfristiger Vergleich zwischen Deutschland und den USA

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  • Gebhard Flaig

Abstract

Eine empirische Schätzung der Trend- und Zykluskomponente der Arbeitslosenquote zeigt deutlich die tiefe Krise auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt. Die Trendkomponente ist inzwischen höher als 1950, und es gibt keinerlei Hinweis darauf, dass der Anstieg des Trends zum Stillstand gekommen ist oder dass gar eine Trendwende eingetreten ist. Wenn sich nichts Gravierendes ändert, impliziert das in dem Beitrag geschätzte Modell, dass der Trend der deutschen Arbeitslosenquote in den nächsten vier Jahren um einen weiteren Prozentpunkt ansteigt. Da die Trendkomponente die strukturellen Ursachen der Arbeitslosigkeit widerspiegelt, müssen Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der Beschäftigungssituation hier ansetzen. Ein Vergleich mit der Entwicklung in den USA zeigt, dass ein Anstieg der Trendkomponente der Arbeitslosigkeit kein unabänderliches Schicksal ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebhard Flaig, 2003. "Die Entwicklung der Arbeitslosenquote: Ein langfristiger Vergleich zwischen Deutschland und den USA," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(16), pages 14-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:16:p:14-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deutschland; Vereinigte Staaten; Arbeitslosigkeit; Konjunkturelle Arbeitslosigkeit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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