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Demographischer Wandel in Ostdeutschland: Fluch oder Segen für den Arbeitsmarkt?

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  • Beate Henschel
  • Carsten Pohl

Abstract

Anhand eines theoriebasierten Simulationsmodells werden die Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt bis zum Jahr 2020 untersucht. Demnach könnte die Zahl der Erwerbstätigen insgesamt von 6,7 auf 6,1 Mill. zurückgehen. Da das Arbeitsangebot schneller schrumpft als die Arbeitsnachfrage, zeigen die Simulationsergebnisse einen Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit. Der aufgezeigte Mangel an hoch qualifizierten Fachkräften ab dem Jahr 2013 könnte allerdings auch negative Beschäftigungseffekte für die Niedrig- und Mittelqualifizierten nach sich ziehen. Falls es gelingt, das Angebot an Hochqualifizierten zu erhöhen, würde dies dem gesamten ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt helfen.

Suggested Citation

  • Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl, 2007. "Demographischer Wandel in Ostdeutschland: Fluch oder Segen für den Arbeitsmarkt?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(03), pages 3-13, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:14:y:2007:i:03:p:3-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Henschel & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41, October.
    2. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Franz, Wolfgang, 1997. "Flexibilität der qualifikatorischen Lohnstruktur und Lastverteilung der Arbeitslosigkeit: Eine ökonometrische Analyse für Westdeutschland," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-32, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl & Marcel Thum, 2008. "Demographic Change and Regional Labour Markets: The Case of Eastern Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 2315, CESifo.
    4. Donghoon Lee & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 1-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hapke, Peter & Seibert, Holger & Wesling, Mirko, 2012. "Regionale Mobilität von Auszubildenden in Berlin-Brandenburg : Demografische Entlastungen auf dem Lehrstellenmarkt reduzieren die Pendlerströme," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Berlin-Brandenburg 201201, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Dieter Bogai & Franziska Hirschenauer, 2008. "Die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages 44-54, 08.
    3. Fuchs, Michaela & Pohl, Anja & Sujata, Uwe & Weyh, Antje, 2011. "Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels für den Arbeitsmarkt in Thüringen," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Sachsen-Anhalt-Thüringen 201101, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Dieter Bogai & Franziska Hirschenauer, 2008. "Die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes in Ostdeutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(04), pages .44-54, August.
    5. Fuchs, Michaela & Sujata, Uwe & Weyh, Antje, 2011. "Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels für den Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Sachsen 201101, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    6. Fuchs, Michaela & Sujata, Uwe & Weyh, Antje, 2010. "Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels für den Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen-Anhalt," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Sachsen-Anhalt-Thüringen 201003, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographie; Arbeitsmarkt; Arbeitskräfte; Qualifikation; Neue Bundesländer; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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