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Demographic Change and Regional Labour Markets: The Case of Eastern Germany

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Listed:
  • Beate Henschel
  • Carsten Pohl
  • Marcel Thum

Abstract

Demographic change will be one of the most challenging issues for industrialized economies in the decades to come. In this paper, we focus on the impact of demographic change on labour markets. By setting up a stylized model of a regional labour market, we are able to analyze the interaction of labour demand and supply during demographic transitions. The simulation results for eastern Germany, a forerunner in the demographic process, show that the population decline will not help to reduce the currently high unemployment among the low-skilled dramatically. Among the high-skilled, scarcities will play a major role and could impede the development of industrial centers.

Suggested Citation

  • Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl & Marcel Thum, 2008. "Demographic Change and Regional Labour Markets: The Case of Eastern Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 2315, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2315
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    Cited by:

    1. Beate Henschel & Carsten Pohl, 2007. "Demographischer Wandel in Ostdeutschland: Fluch oder Segen für den Arbeitsmarkt?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(03), pages 3-13, June.
    2. Michael Berlemann & Marco Oestmann & Marcel Thum, 2014. "Demographic change and bank profitability: empirical evidence from German savings banks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 79-94, January.
    3. Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva, 2009. "Riunificazione intertedesca e politiche per la convergenza," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 14, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    4. Anna Lialina, 2019. "Labor market security in the light of external labor migration: new theoretical findings," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 6(3), pages 1205-1225, March.
    5. Paul J.M. Van Steen & Piet H. Pellenbarg, 2010. "Population Change And Spatial Transformation In The Netherlands," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 101(5), pages 612-618, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic change; labour market; unemployment; long-run projection; general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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