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Closed-form estimators for finite-order ARCH models as simple and competitive alternatives to QMLE

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  • Prono Todd

    (Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, USA, Phone: +(202) 973-6955)

Abstract

Strong consistency and (weak) distributional convergence to highly non-Gaussian limits are established for closed-form, two stage least squares (TSLS) estimators of linear and threshold ARCH (p) models, with special attention paid to the ARCH (1) and threshold ARCH (1) cases. Conditions supporting these results include (relatively) mild moment existence criteria that enjoy empirical support. These conditions are not shared by competing estimators like OLS. Identification of the TSLS estimators depends on asymmetry, either in the model’s rescaled errors or in the conditional variance function. Monte Carlo studies reveal TSLS estimation can sizably outperform quasi maximum likelihood (QML) in small samples and even best recently proposed two-step estimators specifically designed to enhance the efficiency of QML.

Suggested Citation

  • Prono Todd, 2018. "Closed-form estimators for finite-order ARCH models as simple and competitive alternatives to QMLE," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-25, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:22:y:2018:i:5:p:25:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2017-0070
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH; closed form estimation; heavy tails; threshold ARCH; instrumental variables; regular variation; two stage least squares;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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