IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/pepspp/v21y2015i3p351-389n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Mathematical Analysis of Domestic Terrorist Activity in the Years of Lead in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Marcovina Marco
  • Pellero Bruno

    (Researcher and adjunct professor at Master in Economic Intelligence, Department of Education Science and Technologies, Tor Vergata University, Via Orazio Raimondo, 18, 00173 Rome, Italy)

Abstract

The data-set of the casualties of terrorist attacks in the Years of Lead in Italy is analyzed in order to empirically test theoretical open issues about terrorist activity. The first is whether Richardson’s law holds true when the scale is narrowed down from global to only one epoch of domestic terrorism in a single country. It is found that the power law is a plausible model. Then, the distribution of the inter-arrival times between two consecutive strikes is investigated, finding (weaker) indications that also for this parameter a power law is a plausible model and that this is the result of non-stationary dynamics of terrorist activity. The implications of this finding on the models available today for explaining a power law in the severity of attacks are then discussed. The paper also highlights the counter-intuitive implications that a power law distribution of the waiting times has for a State inferring the time to the next strike from the observation of the time already elapsed since the previous one. Further, it is shown how the analysis of the inter-arrival times provides estimates about the temporal evolution of terrorist strength that can help discriminating among competing hypotheses derived from qualitative analysis. Finally, a simplified mathematical model of the policy decision-making process is constructed to show how the nature of power laws biases the prioritizing of the policy agenda and the consequent allocation of resources to concurring issues. It is shown how the bias causes systematical relative underfunding of policy issues whose severity follows a power law distribution and that this trend is likely to persist until a major event will reverse the behavior of the decision-maker, then causing relative overfunding.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcovina Marco & Pellero Bruno, 2015. "A Mathematical Analysis of Domestic Terrorist Activity in the Years of Lead in Italy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 351-389, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:21:y:2015:i:3:p:351-389:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2014-0049
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2014-0049
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/peps-2014-0049?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Todd Sandler, 2015. "Terrorism and counterterrorism: an overview," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 1-20.
    2. Aaron Clauset & Frederik W. Wiegel, 2010. "A Generalized Aggregation-Disintegration Model for the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Attacks," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(1), pages 179-197, February.
    3. Neil Johnson & Michael Spagat & Jorge A. Restrepo & Nicolás Suárez, 2005. "From old wars to new wars and global terrorism," Documentos de Economía 2745, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    4. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2013. "Symposium - Determinants of the Demise of Terrorist Organizations," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 774-792, April.
    5. Aaron Clauset & Maxwell Young & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2007. "On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 58-87, February.
    6. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, May.
    7. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2014. "An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 25-44, July.
    8. Clauset Aaron & Young Maxwell & Gleditsch Kristian Skrede, 2010. "A Novel Explanation of the Power-Law Form of the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events: Reply to Saperstein," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-7, December.
    9. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 685-696.
    10. Todd Sandler, 2014. "The analytical study of terrorism," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 51(2), pages 257-271, March.
    11. Jan Oskar Engene, 2007. "Five Decades of Terrorism in Europe: The TWEED Dataset," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 44(1), pages 109-121, January.
    12. S. Blomberg & Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2011. "Terrorist group survival: ideology, tactics, and base of operations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 441-463, December.
    13. Aaron Clauset & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2012. "The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-11, November.
    14. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 37-49.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Sara M. T. Polo, 2016. "Ethnic inclusion, democracy, and terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 207-229, December.
    2. Yang Jiao & Zijun Luo, 2019. "A model of terrorism and counterterrorism with location choices," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 179(3), pages 301-313, June.
    3. Michael Jetter & David Stadelmann, 2019. "Terror per Capita," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(1), pages 286-304, July.
    4. Gaibulloev, Khusrav & Hou, Dongfang & Sandler, Todd, 2020. "How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Economou Athina & Kollias Christos, 2015. "Terrorism and Political Self-Placement in European Union Countries," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 217-238, April.
    6. Michael Spagat & Neil F Johnson & Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Fundamental patterns and predictions of event size distributions in modern wars and terrorist campaigns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-13, October.
    7. Kjell Hausken & Sheheryar Banuri & Dipak Gupta & Klaus Abbink, 2015. "Al Qaeda at the bar: coordinating ideologues and mercenaries in terrorist organizations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 57-73, July.
    8. Elena V McLean & Kaisa H Hinkkainen & Luis De la Calle & Navin A Bapat, 2018. "Economic sanctions and the dynamics of terrorist campaigns," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(4), pages 378-401, July.
    9. Michael Jetter & Bei Li, 2017. "The Political Economy of Opposition Groups: Peace, Terrorism, or Civil Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 6747, CESifo.
    10. Rafael González-Val, 2016. "War Size Distribution: Empirical Regularities Behind Conflicts," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 838-853, November.
    11. Sarah Brockhoff & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2012. "Looking Back on Anger: Explaining the Social Origins of Left-Wing and Nationalist-Separatist Terrorism in Western Europe, 1970-2007," CESifo Working Paper Series 3789, CESifo.
    12. Bagchi, Aniruddha & Paul, Jomon A., 2018. "Youth unemployment and terrorism in the MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 9-20.
    13. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
    14. Hinkkainen Kaisa, 2013. "Homegrown Terrorism: The Known Unknown," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 157-182, August.
    15. Shuo She & Qiao Wang & Dana Weimann-Saks, 2020. "Correlation factors influencing terrorist attacks: political, social or economic? A study of terrorist events in 49 “Belt and Road” countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 125-146, February.
    16. Al-Ississ Mohamad, 2015. "The Cross-Border Impact of Political Violence," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 239-272, April.
    17. Thomas Bassetti & Raul Caruso & Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "The tree of political violence: a GMERT analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 839-850, March.
    18. Mazhar Ummad, 2019. "Terrorism and Firm Performance: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, January.
    19. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2013. "Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002–2010," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 685-696.
    20. Saperstein Alvin M., 2010. "A Comment on the Power Law Relation Between Frequency and Severity of Terrorist Attacks," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-6, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:21:y:2015:i:3:p:351-389:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.