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An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end

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  • Khusrav Gaibulloev
  • Todd Sandler

Abstract

This paper implements discrete-time survival models to ascertain the determinants behind specific endings for terrorist groups during 1970–2007. Based on multinomial logit regressions, we estimate the hazard probabilities associated with three endings for terrorist groups: splintering from internal factors, being defeated by force, and joining the political process or achieving victory. We find that different covariates differentially impact each of these endings. In a second exercise, we split our sample of 586 terrorist groups into those that started before and after the beginning of 1990. In so doing, we find that survival factors differ between the two cohorts of groups. For both exercises, the determinants of survival comprise terrorist groups’ goals, their tactics and size, and base-country characteristics. Robustness tests conclude the paper. Copyright The Author(s) 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2014. "An empirical analysis of alternative ways that terrorist groups end," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 25-44, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:160:y:2014:i:1:p:25-44
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-013-0136-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Axel Dreher & Merle Kreibaum, 2016. "Weapons of choice," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 53(4), pages 539-553, July.
    2. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2023. "Islamist terrorism and the status of women," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2021. "Islamist terrorism and the role of women," Discussion Paper Series 2021-02, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    4. Ashlyn W. Hand & Nilay Saiya, 2023. "Democracy’s Ambivalent Effect on Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(7-8), pages 1618-1643, August.
    5. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler, 2024. "A Theoretical Treatment of Foreign Fighters and Terrorism," Working Papers 2024-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Kjell Hausken & Sheheryar Banuri & Dipak Gupta & Klaus Abbink, 2015. "Al Qaeda at the bar: coordinating ideologues and mercenaries in terrorist organizations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 57-73, July.
    7. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler, 2022. "Effects of Defensive and Proactive Measures on Competition Between Terrorist Groups," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(10), pages 1797-1825, November.
    8. Marcovina Marco & Pellero Bruno, 2015. "A Mathematical Analysis of Domestic Terrorist Activity in the Years of Lead in Italy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 351-389, August.
    9. Kjell Hausken, 2018. "A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 111-129, February.
    10. Gaibulloev, Khusrav & Hou, Dongfang & Sandler, Todd, 2020. "How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorist group survival; Multinomial logit analysis; Panel analysis; Alternative ending of terrorist groups; D74; C41; H56;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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