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A Generalized Aggregation-Disintegration Model for the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Attacks

Author

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  • Aaron Clauset

    (Santa Fe Institute, NM, aaronc@santafe.edu)

  • Frederik W. Wiegel

    (University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

Abstract

The authors present and analyze a model of the frequency of severe terrorist attacks, which generalizes the recently proposed model of Johnson et al. This model, which is based on the notion of self-organized criticality and which describes how terrorist cells might aggregate and disintegrate over time, predicts that the distribution of attack severities should follow a power-law form with an exponent of α = 5/2. This prediction is in good agreement with current empirical estimates for terrorist attacks worldwide, which give α = 2.4 ± 0.2 and which the authors show is independent of certain details of the model. The authors close by discussing the utility of this model for understanding terrorism and the behavior of terrorist organizations and mention several productive ways it could be extended mathematically or tested empirically.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Clauset & Frederik W. Wiegel, 2010. "A Generalized Aggregation-Disintegration Model for the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Attacks," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(1), pages 179-197, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:54:y:2010:i:1:p:179-197
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002709352452
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neil Johnson & Michael Spagat & Jorge A. Restrepo & Nicolás Suárez, 2005. "From old wars to new wars and global terrorism," Documentos de Economía 2745, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    2. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(3), pages 307-332, June.
    3. Pape, Robert A., 2003. "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(3), pages 343-361, August.
    4. Cederman, Lars-Erik, 2003. "Modeling the Size of Wars: From Billiard Balls to Sandpiles," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 135-150, February.
    5. Kydd, Andrew & Walter, Barbara F., 2002. "Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 263-296, April.
    6. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1823, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcovina Marco & Pellero Bruno, 2015. "A Mathematical Analysis of Domestic Terrorist Activity in the Years of Lead in Italy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 351-389, August.
    2. Gao, Jianbo & Fang, Peng & Liu, Feiyan, 2017. "Empirical scaling law connecting persistence and severity of global terrorism," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 74-86.
    3. Saperstein Alvin M., 2010. "A Comment on the Power Law Relation Between Frequency and Severity of Terrorist Attacks," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-6, September.
    4. Clauset Aaron & Young Maxwell & Gleditsch Kristian Skrede, 2010. "A Novel Explanation of the Power-Law Form of the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events: Reply to Saperstein," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-7, December.
    5. Edoardo Magnone, 2014. "The extreme case of terrorism: a scientometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 101(1), pages 179-201, October.

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