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The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations

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  • Aaron Clauset
  • Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

Abstract

We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968–2008 and a simulation model of organizational dynamics, we show that the production of violent events tends to accelerate with increasing size and experience. This coupling of frequency, experience and size arises from a fundamental positive feedback loop in which attacks lead to growth which leads to increased production of new attacks. In contrast, event severity is independent of both size and experience. Thus larger, more experienced organizations are more deadly because they attack more frequently, not because their attacks are more deadly, and large events are equally likely to come from large and small organizations. These results hold across political ideologies and time, suggesting that the frequency and severity of terrorism may be constrained by fundamental processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Clauset & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2012. "The Developmental Dynamics of Terrorist Organizations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-11, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0048633
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048633
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(3), pages 307-332, June.
    2. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler & Khusrav Gaibulloev, 2011. "Domestic Versus Transnational Terrorism: Data, Decomposition, and Dynamics," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 319-337, May.
    3. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1823, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Spagat & Neil F Johnson & Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Fundamental patterns and predictions of event size distributions in modern wars and terrorist campaigns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-13, October.
    2. Zhongbei Li & Xiangchun Li & Chen Dong & Fanfan Guo & Fan Zhang & Qi Zhang, 2021. "Quantitative Analysis of Global Terrorist Attacks Based on the Global Terrorism Database," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Garcia-Bernardo, Javier & Dodds, Peter Sheridan & Johnson, Neil F., 2016. "Quantitative patterns in drone wars," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 380-384.
    4. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Sara M. T. Polo, 2016. "Ethnic inclusion, democracy, and terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 207-229, December.
    5. Marcovina Marco & Pellero Bruno, 2015. "A Mathematical Analysis of Domestic Terrorist Activity in the Years of Lead in Italy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 351-389, August.

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