IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/mcmeap/v16y2010i3-4p361-377n6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Increasing the number of inner replications of multifactor portfolio credit risk simulation in the t-copula model

Author

Listed:
  • Sak Halis

    (Department of Statistics and Mathematics, WU (Vienna University of Economics and Business), Augasse 2–6, A-1090 Wien, Austria; and Systems Engineering Department, Yeditepe University, Kayisdagi-İstanbul, Turkey. E-mail:)

Abstract

We consider the problem of simulating tail loss probabilities and expected losses conditioned on exceeding a large threshold (expected shortfall) for credit portfolios. Instead of the commonly used normal copula framework for the dependence structure between obligors, we use the t-copula model. We increase the number of inner replications using the so-called geometric shortcut idea to increase the efficiency of the simulations. The paper contains all details for simulating the risk of the t-copula credit risk model by combining outer importance sampling (IS) with the geometric shortcut. Numerical results show that the applied method is efficient in assessing tail loss probabilities and expected shortfalls for credit risk portfolios. We also compare the tail loss probabilities and expected shortfalls under the normal and t-copula model.

Suggested Citation

  • Sak Halis, 2010. "Increasing the number of inner replications of multifactor portfolio credit risk simulation in the t-copula model," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3-4), pages 361-377, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:mcmeap:v:16:y:2010:i:3-4:p:361-377:n:6
    DOI: 10.1515/mcma.2010.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/mcma.2010.013
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/mcma.2010.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Chan & Dirk Kroese, 2011. "Rare-event probability estimation with conditional Monte Carlo," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 43-61, September.
    2. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    3. Paul Glasserman & Jingyi Li, 2005. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(11), pages 1643-1656, November.
    4. Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Selecting copulas for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2405-2423, August.
    5. Paul Glasserman & Philip Heidelberger & Perwez Shahabuddin, 1999. "Asymptotically Optimal Importance Sampling and Stratification for Pricing Path‐Dependent Options," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 117-152, April.
    6. Andre Lucas & Pieter Klaassen & Peter Spreij & Stefan Straetmans, 2003. "Tail behaviour of credit loss distributions for general latent factor models," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 337-357.
    7. Achal Bassamboo & Sandeep Juneja & Assaf Zeevi, 2008. "Portfolio Credit Risk with Extremal Dependence: Asymptotic Analysis and Efficient Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 593-606, June.
    8. Peter W. Glynn & Ward Whitt, 1992. "The Asymptotic Efficiency of Simulation Estimators," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 505-520, June.
    9. Sak, Halis & Hörmann, Wolfgang & Leydold, Josef, 2010. "Efficient risk simulations for linear asset portfolios in the t-copula model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 802-809, May.
    10. Paul Embrechts, 2009. "Linear Correlation and EVT: Properties and Caveats," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 30-39, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hsieh, Ming-Hua & Lee, Yi-Hsi & Shyu, So-De & Chiu, Yu-Fen, 2019. "Estimating multifactor portfolio credit risk: A variance reduction approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Erik Hintz & Marius Hofert & Christiane Lemieux & Yoshihiro Taniguchi, 2022. "Single-Index Importance Sampling with Stratification," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 3049-3073, December.
    3. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.
    4. İsmail Başoğlu & Wolfgang Hörmann & Halis Sak, 2018. "Efficient simulations for a Bernoulli mixture model of portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 113-128, January.
    5. Anand Deo & Sandeep Juneja, 2021. "Credit Risk: Simple Closed-Form Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 361-379, March.
    6. Sunggon Kim & Jisu Yu, 2023. "Stratified importance sampling for a Bernoulli mixture model of portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(2), pages 819-849, March.
    7. Mohamed A. Ayadi & Hatem Ben-Ameur & Nabil Channouf & Quang Khoi Tran, 2019. "NORTA for portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 99-119, October.
    8. Hengxin Cui & Ken Seng Tan & Fan Yang, 2024. "Portfolio credit risk with Archimedean copulas: asymptotic analysis and efficient simulation," Papers 2411.06640, arXiv.org.
    9. Cheng-Der Fuh & Chuan-Ju Wang, 2017. "Efficient Exponential Tilting for Portfolio Credit Risk," Papers 1711.03744, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    10. Hörmann, Wolfgang & Sak, Halis, 2010. "t-Copula generation for control variates," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(4), pages 782-790.
    11. Anand Deo & Sandeep Juneja, 2019. "Credit Risk: Simple Closed Form Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Papers 1912.12611, arXiv.org.
    12. Rongda Chen & Ze Wang & Lean Yu, 2017. "Importance Sampling for Credit Portfolio Risk with Risk Factors Having t-Copula," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(04), pages 1101-1124, July.
    13. Avramidis, Panagiotis & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2015. "Calculating systemic risk capital: A factor model approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 138-150.
    14. Tang, Qihe & Tong, Zhiwei & Yang, Yang, 2021. "Large portfolio losses in a turbulent market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(2), pages 755-769.
    15. Matthias Fischer & Thorsten Moser & Marius Pfeuffer, 2018. "A Discussion on Recent Risk Measures with Application to Credit Risk: Calculating Risk Contributions and Identifying Risk Concentrations," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-28, December.
    16. Sak, Halis & Hörmann, Wolfgang & Leydold, Josef, 2010. "Efficient risk simulations for linear asset portfolios in the t-copula model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 802-809, May.
    17. Han, Chulwoo & Park, Frank C., 2022. "A geometric framework for covariance dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Parrini, Alessandro, 2013. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk in Factor Copula Models," MPRA Paper 103745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Plischke, Elmar & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2019. "Copula theory and probabilistic sensitivity analysis: Is there a connection?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 1046-1059.
    20. Loretta Mastroeni & Giuseppe D'Acquisto & Maurizio Naldi, 2014. "Evaluation of Credit Risk Under Correlated Defaults: The Cross-Entropy Simulation Approach," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0193, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:mcmeap:v:16:y:2010:i:3-4:p:361-377:n:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.