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Responses to Scoring or Conceding the First Goal in the NHL

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  • Jones Marshall B

    (Penn State University)

Abstract

In low-scoring sports such as ice hockey or soccer, which team scores the first goal is critically important to game outcome. By the same token, how a team responds to scoring or conceding the first goal is also important. If a team responds well when it concedes the first goal, it may win out in the end. On the other hand, if it handles an initial setback badly, the game may be effectively over. These considerations are knit together in an accounting identity which serves as a scaffold for the present study. Performance after the first goal is controlled by two responses, how well the team which scores the first goal retains its advantage and how well the team which concedes the first goal counters its disadvantage. These two responses are both found to play large roles in which team wins the game and how many goals after the first each one scores. Both responses are highly significant and together account for most of the advantage that the home team enjoys in game outcome. The relation of these results to the frequently encountered idea of momentum is also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones Marshall B, 2011. "Responses to Scoring or Conceding the First Goal in the NHL," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:7:y:2011:i:3:n:15
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1324
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jones Marshall B, 2007. "Home Advantage in the NBA as a Game-Long Process," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-16, October.
    2. Edward Renshaw, 1989. "Viewpoint," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 54-56, July.
    3. B. Marshall Jones, 2009. "Scoring First and Home Advantage in the NHL," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 320-331, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nevo Daniel & Ritov Ya’acov, 2013. "Around the goal: examining the effect of the first goal on the second goal in soccer using survival analysis methods," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 165-177, June.

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