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Scoring First and Home Advantage in the NHL

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  • B. Marshall Jones

Abstract

Home advantage in the NBA has recently been reported to be “frontloaded,” that is, it is largest in the 1st quarter, smallest in the 4th quarter, and in-between in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Home advantage in the 1st quarter was 60% of home advantage at the end of the game. The present study was intended to determine if NHL hockey, a very different sport, is also frontloaded. The results were that home advantage in the first goal was 53.01% (home wins) and 52.37% in goals scored after the first. Home advantage in complete games was 56.05%. Hence, the advantage accumulated in the 1st quarter equaled 49.75% of the advantage in complete games. Theories of “psychological momentum” have been advanced according to which scoring first gives a team an advantage in subsequent play. In the NHL, however, no such advantage obtains. In fact, the team scored against does slightly better in goals scored after the first than the team which scores first. Momentum theory also claims that scoring first markedly increases the likelihood of winning. It does, but the effect is due mainly to the fact that the first goal is included in the final score.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Marshall Jones, 2009. "Scoring First and Home Advantage in the NHL," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 320-331, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpanxx:v:9:y:2009:i:3:p:320-331
    DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2009.11868489
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    Cited by:

    1. Morgulev, Elia & Azar, Ofer H. & Galily, Yair & Bar-Eli, Michael, 2020. "The role of initial success in competition: An analysis of early lead effects in NBA overtimes," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Jones Marshall B, 2011. "Responses to Scoring or Conceding the First Goal in the NHL," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Patricia Sánchez-Murillo & Antonio Antúnez & Daniel Rojas-Valverde & Sergio J. Ibáñez, 2021. "On-Match Impact and Outcomes of Scoring First in Professional European Female Football," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-9, November.
    4. Nimai Parmar & Nic James & Mike Hughes & Huw Jones & Gary Hearne, 2017. "Team performance indicators that predict match outcome and points difference in professional rugby league," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 1044-1056, November.

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