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The Impact of the Movement of Labour: Results from a Model of Bilateral Migration Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Walmsley Terrie L.

    (Purdue University)

  • Winters Alan

    (University of Sussex)

  • Ahmed Amer

    (World Bank)

Abstract

The economics literature increasingly recognizes the importance of migration. In this paper, a bilateral global migration model is developed to investigate the impact of lifting restrictions on the movement of labour. Quotas on skilled and unskilled labour in the developed economies are increased by 3% of their labour forces, with the additional labour supplied by developing economies.This paper improves upon the previous work of Walmsley and Winters (2005). A critical weakness of the previous work was that it was unable to capture the impacts of specific bilateral migration flows or liberalizations between countries. This paper uses a bilateral global migration model that exploits migration data obtained from Parsons, Skeldon, Winters, and Walmsley (2007) that allow the model to account for bilateral migration flows.The results confirm that restrictions on migration impose significant costs on nearly all countries, with the modest liberalization increasing global GDP by US$ 288 billion. All of the developed (labour importing) economies gain in terms of real incomes. While results differ across the developing (labour exporting) economies, most gain as a result of the higher remittances sent home.JEL: F22, C68, 015

Suggested Citation

  • Walmsley Terrie L. & Winters Alan & Ahmed Amer, 2011. "The Impact of the Movement of Labour: Results from a Model of Bilateral Migration Flows," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:11:y:2011:i:4:n:2
    DOI: 10.2202/1524-5861.1738
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    2. Walmsley, Terrie & Ahmed, Syud Amer & Parsons, Christopher, 2005. "A Global Bilateral Migration Data Base: Skilled Labor, Wages and Remittances," GTAP Research Memoranda 1880, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. World Bank, 2007. "World Development Indicators 2007," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8150.
    4. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús & Rapoport, Hillel, 2014. "Tradable immigration quotas," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 94-108.
    2. Wildasin, David, 2014. "Human Capital Mobility: Implications for Efficiency, Income Distribution, and Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 8199, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Aguiar, Angel H. & Walmsley, Terrie L., 2014. "The importance of timing in the U.S. response to undocumented immigrants: A recursive dynamic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-262.
    4. Aguiar, Angel & Ahmed, S. Amer & Carrico, Caitlyn, 2016. "Migration Response to Oil Price Volatility: A Dynamic Simulation of Migration from South and Southeast Asia to the GCC," Conference papers 332776, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Ahmed, S. Amer & Go,Delfin Sia & Willenbockel,Dirk Andreas, 2016. "Global migration revisited : short-term pains, long-term gains, and the potential of south-south migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7628, The World Bank.
    6. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    7. Graneli, Anna & Lodefalk, Magnus, 2014. "Temporary Expats for Export: Firm-Level Evidence," Working Papers 2014:4, Örebro University, School of Business.
    8. Magnus Lodefalk, 2016. "Temporary expats for exports: micro-level evidence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(4), pages 733-772, November.
    9. Maliszewska, Maryla & Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Winters, Alan, 2016. "Cashing in the demographic dividend," Conference papers 332794, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Hatzigeorgiou, Andreas & Lodefalk, Magnus, 2015. "The Role of Foreign Networks for Firm Export of Services," Working Papers 2015:6, Örebro University, School of Business.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GATS Mode 4; real income; migration; applied general equilibrium modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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