IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v91y2024ics105752192300474x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geopolitical risk and stock price crash risk: The mitigating role of ESG performance

Author

Listed:
  • Fiorillo, Paolo
  • Meles, Antonio
  • Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele
  • Verdoliva, Vincenzo

Abstract

We study the effect of geopolitical risk (GPR) on stock price crash risk and we investigate the mediating role of the ESG factors in this relationship. Using a large international sample of publicly listed firms, we find that higher GPR causes stock price crashes to occur more frequently. This result holds to several robustness checks and to the use of different measures of stock price crash risk and we rule out any potential endogeneity concern using an Instrumental Variables (IV) approach. We also find that the causal effect of GPR on crash events is mainly driven by the expectations and threats of geopolitical tensions (geopolitical threats), rather than their effective realization and escalation (geopolitical acts). However, when exploring the potential mitigating role of ESG factors, we observe these negative implications to be less severe for high ESG-rated issuers and, specifically, for firms scoring high in the Environmental and Social dimensions. Our study demonstrates that firms more engaged in ESG practices are more resilient to the GPR's adverse effect on stock price crash risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock price crash risk: The mitigating role of ESG performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:91:y:2024:i:c:s105752192300474x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102958
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105752192300474X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102958?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei, 2021. "Firms' cash reserve, financial constraint, and geopolitical risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Juan Carluccio & Clément Mazet-Sonilhac & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier, 2023. "Private firms, corporate investment and the WACC: evidence from France," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 86-110, January.
    4. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Jiaxin & He, Mengxi & Li, Shaofang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: A global perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    6. Wei-Fong Pan, 2019. "Geopolitical Risk and R&D investment," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-11, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    7. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.
    8. Borghesi, Richard & Houston, Joel F. & Naranjo, Andy, 2014. "Corporate socially responsible investments: CEO altruism, reputation, and shareholder interests," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 164-181.
    9. Saâdaoui, Foued & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the Saudi stock market: Evidence from a new wavelet packet multiresolution cross-causality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Ferrell, Allen & Liang, Hao & Renneboog, Luc, 2016. "Socially responsible firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 585-606.
    11. Mei, Dexiang & Ma, Feng & Liao, Yin & Wang, Lu, 2020. "Geopolitical risk uncertainty and oil future volatility: Evidence from MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Vincenzo Capizzi & Eleonora Gioia & Giancarlo Giudici & Francesca Tenca, 2021. "The Divergence Of Esg Ratings: An Analysis Of Italian Listed Companies," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions (JFMMI), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-21, December.
    13. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
    14. Kim, Jeong-Bon & Li, Yinghua & Zhang, Liandong, 2011. "CFOs versus CEOs: Equity incentives and crashes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 713-730, September.
    15. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Business Cycles across Space and Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 921-952, June.
    16. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    17. Muhammad Atif & Searat Ali, 2021. "Environmental, social and governance disclosure and default risk," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 3937-3959, December.
    18. Gu, Xiaolong & Xin, Yu & Xu, Liping, 2019. "Expected stock price crash risk and bank loan pricing: Evidence from China's listed firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    19. Ferreira, João J. & Gomes, Sofia & Lopes, João M. & Zhang, Justin Z., 2023. "Ticking time bombs: The MENA and SSA regions' geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    20. Afees A. Salisu & Lukman Lasisi & Jean Paul Tchankam, 2022. "Historical geopolitical risk and the behaviour of stock returns in advanced economies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(9), pages 889-906, June.
    21. Xiang Deng & Xiang Cheng, 2019. "Can ESG Indices Improve the Enterprises’ Stock Market Performance?—An Empirical Study from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-13, September.
    22. Maria-Eleni K. Agoraki & Georgios P. Kouretas & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2022. "Geopolitical risks, uncertainty, and stock market performance," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 253-265, July.
    23. Alam, Ahmed W. & Houston, Reza & Farjana, Ashupta, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate investment: How do politically connected firms respond?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    24. Hee-Kyung Koh & Regina Burnasheva & Yong Gu Suh, 2022. "Perceived ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) and Consumers’ Responses: The Mediating Role of Brand Credibility, Brand Image, and Perceived Quality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-15, April.
    25. Isabel Lourenço & Manuel Branco & José Curto & Teresa Eugénio, 2012. "How Does the Market Value Corporate Sustainability Performance?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 417-428, July.
    26. Kotcharin, Suntichai & Maneenop, Sakkakom, 2020. "Geopolitical risk and corporate cash holdings in the shipping industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    27. Caroline Flammer, 2015. "Does Corporate Social Responsibility Lead to Superior Financial Performance? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(11), pages 2549-2568, November.
    28. Ahsan Habib & Hedy Jiaying Huang, 2019. "Abnormally long audit report lags and future stock price crash risk: evidence from China," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 611-635, April.
    29. Rui Albuquerque & Yrjö Koskinen & Chendi Zhang, 2019. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Firm Risk: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4451-4469, October.
    30. Battaglia, Francesca & Buchanan, Bonnie G. & Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella, 2021. "Securitization and crash risk: Evidence from large European banks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    31. Zhe An & Zhian Chen & Donghui Li & Lu Xing, 2018. "Individualism and stock price crash risk," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(9), pages 1208-1236, December.
    32. Cronqvist, Henrik & Yu, Frank, 2017. "Shaped by their daughters: Executives, female socialization, and corporate social responsibility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 543-562.
    33. Menglong Yang & Qiang Zhang & Adan Yi & Peng Peng & Baogui Xin, 2021. "Geopolitical Risk and Stock Market Volatility in Emerging Economies: Evidence from GARCH-MIDAS Model," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-17, September.
    34. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and bank stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    35. Cai, Ye & Pan, Carrie H. & Statman, Meir, 2016. "Why do countries matter so much in corporate social performance?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 591-609.
    36. Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella & Santilli, Gianluca, 2023. "Environmental engagement and stock price crash risk: Evidence from the European banking industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    37. Jun Liu, 2005. "An Equilibrium Model of Rare-Event Premia and Its Implication for Option Smirks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 131-164.
    38. Hegde, Shantaram P. & Mishra, Dev R., 2019. "Married CEOs and corporate social responsibility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 226-246.
    39. Eric C. Chang & Joseph W. Cheng & Yinghui Yu, 2007. "Short‐Sales Constraints and Price Discovery: Evidence from the Hong Kong Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2097-2121, October.
    40. Hutton, Amy P. & Marcus, Alan J. & Tehranian, Hassan, 2009. "Opaque financial reports, R2, and crash risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 67-86, October.
    41. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    42. Matthew W. Clance & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Geopolitical risks and recessions in a panel of advanced economies: evidence from over a century of data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(16), pages 1317-1321, September.
    43. Naif Alsagr & Stefan F. Van Hemmen Almazor, 2020. "Oil Rent, Geopolitical Risk and Banking Sector Performance," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 305-314.
    44. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2006. "Same Financial Development Yet Different Economic Growth: Why?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1907-1944, October.
    45. Abeysekera, Amal P. & Fernando, Chitru S., 2020. "Corporate social responsibility versus corporate shareholder responsibility: A family firm perspective," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    46. McGuinness, Paul B. & Vieito, João Paulo & Wang, Mingzhu, 2017. "The role of board gender and foreign ownership in the CSR performance of Chinese listed firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-99.
    47. Robert G. Eccles & Ioannis Ioannou & George Serafeim, 2014. "The Impact of Corporate Sustainability on Organizational Processes and Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(11), pages 2835-2857, November.
    48. Chen Shiu-Sheng & Chou Yu-Hsi & Yen Chia-Yi, 2016. "Predicting US recessions with stock market illiquidity," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 93-123, January.
    49. Karl V. Lins & Henri Servaes & Ane Tamayo, 2017. "Social Capital, Trust, and Firm Performance: The Value of Corporate Social Responsibility during the Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1785-1824, August.
    50. Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Fitzgibbons, Shaun & Pomorski, Lukasz, 2021. "Responsible investing: The ESG-efficient frontier," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 572-597.
    51. Shackleton, Mark & Yan, Jiali & Yao, Yaqiong, 2022. "What drives a firm's ES performance? Evidence from stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    52. Randi Næs & Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2011. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 139-176, February.
    53. S. P. Kothari & Susan Shu & Peter D. Wysocki, 2009. "Do Managers Withhold Bad News?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 241-276, March.
    54. Ahsan Habib & Hedy Jiaying Huang, 2019. "Abnormally long audit report lags and future stock price crash risk: evidence from China," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 611-635, April.
    55. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    56. Callen, Jeffrey L. & Fang, Xiaohua, 2013. "Institutional investor stability and crash risk: Monitoring versus short-termism?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3047-3063.
    57. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    58. Paul C. Godfrey & Craig B. Merrill & Jared M. Hansen, 2009. "The relationship between corporate social responsibility and shareholder value: an empirical test of the risk management hypothesis," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 425-445, April.
    59. Aaron K. Chatterji & Rodolphe Durand & David I. Levine & Samuel Touboul, 2016. "Do ratings of firms converge? Implications for managers, investors and strategy researchers," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1597-1614, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Hua & Zhang, Huaqing & Tian, Li & Yuan, Shengli & Tu, Yongqian, 2024. "ESG performance and litigation risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Simone Boccaletti & Paolo Maranzano & Caterina Morelli & Elisa Ossola, 2024. "ESG Performance and Stock Market Responses to Geopolitical Turmoil: evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War," Working Papers 544, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    3. Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Khalfaoui, Rabeh, 2024. "The impact of geopolitical risk on sustainable markets: A quantile-time-frequency analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Wu, Hua & Zhang, Ke & Li, Renyu, 2024. "ESG score, analyst coverage and corporate resilience," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    5. Sun, Guanglin & Yin, Ding & Kong, Tao & Yin, Lei, 2024. "The impact of the integration of the digital economy and the real economy on the risk of stock price collapse," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Huang, Yujie & Li, Shanshan, 2024. "Female directors, ESG performance and enterprise financialization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fiordelisi, Franco & Ricci, Ornella & Santilli, Gianluca, 2023. "Environmental engagement and stock price crash risk: Evidence from the European banking industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Gillan, Stuart L. & Koch, Andrew & Starks, Laura T., 2021. "Firms and social responsibility: A review of ESG and CSR research in corporate finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Huang, Wei & Luo, Yan & Wang, Xiaohuan & Xiao, Lifu, 2022. "Controlling shareholder pledging and corporate ESG behavior," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Li, Lidan & Han, Jie & Mo, Shenwei & Yang, Yupeng, 2024. "Tackling competition by reducing emissions: Private firms’ polluting behavior under peer IPOs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 232-249.
    5. Zhou, Fangzhao & Zhu, Jichen & Qi, Yawei & Yang, Jun & An, Yunbi, 2021. "Multi-dimensional corporate social responsibilities and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Liu, Xianda & Hou, Wenxuan & Main, Brian G.M., 2022. "Anti-market sentiment and corporate social responsibility: Evidence from anti-Jewish pogroms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Michael Mayberry, 2020. "Good for managers, bad for society? Causal evidence on the association between risk‐taking incentives and corporate social responsibility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1182-1214, October.
    8. Jie Chen & Xicheng Liu & Wei Song, 2018. "CEO general managerial skills and corporate social responsibility," Working Papers 2018-16, Swansea University, School of Management.
    9. Li, Chengcheng & Wang, Xiaoqiong, 2022. "Local peer effects of corporate social responsibility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Buchanan, Bonnie G. & Cao, Cathy Xuying & Wang, Shuhui, 2021. "Corporate social responsibility and inside debt: The long game," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Huarng, Kun-Huang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2024. "Causal complexity analysis of ESG performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Wang, Ye & Liu, Xufeng & Wan, Die, 2023. "Stock market openness and ESG performance: Evidence from Shanghai-Hong Kong connect program," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1306-1319.
    13. Chen, Kan-Xiang & Erzurumlu, Yaman Omer & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Turkkan, Melis, 2024. "The impact of economic uncertainty on corporate ESG performance: Global evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(PB).
    14. Fiorillo, Paolo & Meles, Antonio & Pellegrino, Luigi Raffaele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Liang, Yuchao & Tan, Qi & Pang, Jun, 2024. "Bless or curse, how does extreme temperature shape heavy pollution companies' ESG performance?-Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    16. Choi, Young Mok & Park, Kunsu, 2022. "Zero-leverage policy and stock price crash risk: Evidence from Korea," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    17. Wang, Kun Tracy & Liu, Simeng & Wu, Yue, 2021. "Corporate social activities and stock price crash risk in the banking industry: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Ghouma, Hatem, 2018. "Employee welfare and stock price crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 700-725.
    19. Hasan, Iftekhar & Karavitis, Panagiotis & Kazakis, Pantelis & Leung, Woon Sau, 2019. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Profit Shifting," MPRA Paper 91580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sebastian Utz, 2018. "Over‐investment or risk mitigation? Corporate social responsibility in Asia‐Pacific, Europe, Japan, and the United States," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 167-193, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:91:y:2024:i:c:s105752192300474x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.