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House Prices, Bubbles and City Size

Author

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  • Thissen, M.J.P.M.
  • Burger, M.J.
  • van Oort, F.G.

Abstract

We build a theoretical model that relates house price, city size and the expected future growth of demand for housing. Our model combines the Alonso-Mills model on urban economics with insights from financial economics on house prices. Estimating the model for cities in the US, we empirically validate the positive effect of city size on urban house prices. Moreover, our estimations confirm that an (unrealistic) increase in the expected growth of demand fuelled by the widespread availability of credit provides a better explanation for the recent bubble than inelastic housing supply that explained earlier bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Thissen, M.J.P.M. & Burger, M.J. & van Oort, F.G., 2010. "House Prices, Bubbles and City Size," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2010-030-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:20380
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Cheshire, 1999. "Cities in Competition: Articulating the Gains from Integration," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(5-6), pages 843-864, May.
    2. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    3. Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 2005. "Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 334-339, May.
    4. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2005. "Why Have Housing Prices Gone Up?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 329-333, May.
    5. Papageorgiou, Y. Y. & Thisse, J. -F., 1985. "Agglomeration as spatial interdependence between firms and households," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 19-31, October.
    6. Brueckner, Jan K, 1997. "Consumption and Investment Motives and the Portfolio Choices of Homeowners," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 159-180, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bubbles; city size; house prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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