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The Spatial Analysis of Terrorism in Pakistan

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  • Ur Rehman Faiz

    (PhD candidate at European Doctorate in Law and Economics, Università di Bologna, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam and Universität Hamburg, Piazza Scaravilli 2, 40126, Bologna, Italy)

Abstract

Many governments, political economists and terrorist experts consider the use of military and police forces as the ultimate way to effectively deter terrorism. The most effective negative sanctions are considered to be military strikes, aggressive actions (including crackdowns, search operations, raids and shelling) against individuals known or suspected of being terrorists, or against organizations and persons who allegedly support terrorists. Do these negative sanctions effectively deter terrorism? To explore this question, I test displacement, diffusion of terrorism control benefits and vengeance hypotheses of terrorism prevention interventions in Pakistan. The displacement proposition holds when policy intervention raises the opportunity cost of terrorist activities in a given geographic space, thus, increases terrorist incidents in the neighborhoods, where opportunity cost is low. If the same policy decreases terrorism in the adjacent neighborhood, the diffusion proposition holds. Lastly, the vengeance hypothesis illustrates that intervention decreases the opportunity cost of terrorism which escalates more violence. This study explores district level spatial variation in terrorist incidents and terrorism prevention strategies from 2001 to 2012. It shows that terrorism prevention interventions significantly displace terrorism to the neighboring units. The results further illustrate that spatial differences in the legal framework across districts against terrorism related crimes lead to significant cross sectional variation in terrorist attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ur Rehman Faiz, 2015. "The Spatial Analysis of Terrorism in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 125-165, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:ajlecn:v:6:y:2015:i:2:p:125-165:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/ajle-2015-0009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rehman, Faiz Ur & Nasir, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "What have we learned? Assessing the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 487-495.
    2. Michelle Sydes & Lorelei Hine & Angela Higginson & James McEwan & Laura Dugan & Lorraine Mazerolle, 2023. "Criminal justice interventions for preventing radicalisation, violent extremism and terrorism: An evidence and gap map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    diffusion; displacement; opportunity cost; terrorism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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