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The Dynamics of Violence in Vietnam: An Analysis of the Hamlet Evaluation System (HES)

Author

Listed:
  • Stathis N. Kalyvas

    (Department of Political Science, Yale University, stathis.kalyvas@yale.edu)

  • Matthew Adam Kocher

    (Department of Political Science, Yale University, matthew.kocher@yale.edu)

Abstract

The authors analyze a unique data source to study the determinants of violence against civilians in a civil war context. During the Vietnam War, the United States Department of Defense pioneered the use of quantitative analysis for operational purposes. The centerpiece of that effort was the Hamlet Evaluation System (HES), a monthly and quarterly rating of `the status of pacification at the hamlet and village level throughout the Republic of Vietnam'. Consistent with existing theoretical claims, the authors find that homicidal violence against civilians was a function of the level of territorial control exercised by the rival sides: Vietnamese insurgents relied on selective violence primarily where they enjoyed predominant, but not full, control; South Vietnamese government and US forces exercised indiscriminate violence primarily in the most rebel-dominated areas. Violence was less common in the most contested areas. The absence of spatial overlap between insurgent selective and incumbent indiscriminate violence, as well as the relative absence of violence from contested areas, demonstrates both the fundamental divergence between irregular and conventional war and the need for cautious use of violent events as indicators of conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Stathis N. Kalyvas & Matthew Adam Kocher, 2009. "The Dynamics of Violence in Vietnam: An Analysis of the Hamlet Evaluation System (HES)," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(3), pages 335-355, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:46:y:2009:i:3:p:335-355
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Paul Azam & Kartika Bhatia, 2017. "Provoking insurgency in a federal state: theory and application to India," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 183-210, March.
    2. Mahmood, Rafat & Jetter, Michael, 2019. "Military Intervention via Drone Strikes," IZA Discussion Papers 12318, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Tilman Br�ck & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
    4. Maria Paula Saffon & Fabio Sánchez, 2019. "Historical grievances and war dynamics: Old land conflicts as a cause of current forced displacements in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 17320, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    5. Ruhe, Constantin, 2012. "Predicting atrocities. Statistically modeling violence against civilians during civil war," NEPS Working Papers 7/2012, Network of European Peace Scientists.
    6. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2010. "What Explains Changes in the Level of Abuse Against Civilians during the Peruvian Civil War?," Working Papers 1003, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    7. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Alexandra Avdeenko & Andrew Tedesco, 2016. "Measuring Violent Conflict in Micro-level Surveys: Current Practices and Methodological Challenges," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 29-58.
    8. Swee, Eik Leong & Zhan, Haikun & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "Do perceptions of economic well-being predict the onset of war and peace?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Mukherjee, Shivaji, 2018. "Historical legacies of colonial indirect rule: Princely states and Maoist insurgency in central India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 113-129.
    10. de Juan, Alexander, 2012. "Mapping Political Violence – The Approaches and Conceptual Challenges of Subnational Geospatial Analyses of Intrastate Conflict," GIGA Working Papers 211, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    11. Ur Rehman Faiz, 2015. "The Spatial Analysis of Terrorism in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 125-165, October.

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