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Late retirement, early careers, and the aging of U.S. science and engineering professors

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  • Navid Ghaffarzadegan
  • Ran Xu

Abstract

Studies of rescuing early-career scientists often take narrow approaches and focus on PhD students or postdoc populations. In a multi-method systems approach, we examine the inter-relations between the two ends of the pipeline and ask: what are the effects of late retirement on aging and hiring in academia? With a simulation model, we postulate that the decline in the retirement rate in academia contributes to the aging pattern through two mechanisms: (a) direct effect: longer stay of established professors, and (b) indirect effect: a hiring decline in tenure-track positions. Late retirement explains more than half of the growth in average age and brings about 20% decline in hiring. We provide empirical evidence based on the natural experimental set-up of the removal of mandatory retirement in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Ran Xu, 2018. "Late retirement, early careers, and the aging of U.S. science and engineering professors," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0208411
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0208411
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Joshua Hawley & Richard Larson & Yi Xue, 2015. "A Note on PhD Population Growth in Biomedical Sciences," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 402-405, May.
    2. Gary Burtless & Joseph F. Quinn, 2002. "Is Working Longer the Answer for an Aging Workforce?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 550, Boston College Department of Economics.
    3. Richard C. Larson & Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Yi Xue, 2014. "Too Many PhD Graduates or Too Few Academic Job Openings: The Basic Reproductive Number R0 in Academia," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 745-750, November.
    4. Warman, Casey & Worswick, Christopher, 2010. "Mandatory Retirement Rules and the Retirement Decisions of University Professors in Canada," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 1022-1029, December.
    5. Orley Ashenfelter & David Card, 2002. "Did the Elimination of Mandatory Retirement Affect Faculty Retirement?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 957-980, September.
    6. Navid Ghaffarzadegan & Richard C. Larson, 2018. "SD meets OR: a new synergy to address policy problems," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 34(1-2), pages 327-353, January.
    7. Hyungjo Hur & Maryam A Andalib & Julie A Maurer & Joshua D Hawley & Navid Ghaffarzadegan, 2017. "Recent trends in the U.S. Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (BSSR) workforce," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, February.
    8. David Neumark, 2003. "Age Discrimination Legislation in the United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(3), pages 297-317, July.
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