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The Determinants of International Football Success: A Panel Data Analysis of the Elo Rating

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  • Roberto Gásquez
  • Vicente Royuela

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  • Roberto Gásquez & Vicente Royuela, 2016. "The Determinants of International Football Success: A Panel Data Analysis of the Elo Rating," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 97(2), pages 125-141, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:97:y:2016:i:2:p:125-141
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ssqu.2016.97.issue-2
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    1. Roberto Gásquez & Vicente Royuela, 2014. "Is Football an Indicator of Development at the International Level?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 827-848, July.
    2. Berlinschi, Ruxanda & Schokkaert, Jeroen & Swinnen, Johan, 2013. "When drains and gains coincide: Migration and international football performance," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Garry A. Gelade & Paul Dobson, 2007. "Predicting the Comparative Strengths of National Football Teams," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 88(1), pages 244-258, March.
    4. Robert Hoffmann & Lee Chew Ging & Bala Ramasamy, 2002. "The Socio-Economic Determinants of International Soccer Performance," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 5, pages 253-272, November.
    5. Michael A. Leeds & Eva Marikova Leeds, 2009. "International Soccer Success and National Institutions," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(4), pages 369-390, August.
    6. Baltagi, Badi H & Griffin, James M, 1984. "Short and Long Run Effects in Pooled Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(3), pages 631-645, October.
    7. G. J. Allan & J. Moffat, 2014. "Muscle drain versus brain gain in association football: technology transfer through player emigration and manager immigration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 490-493, May.
    8. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    9. Eiji Yamamura, 2012. "Effect of Linguistic Heterogeneity on Technology Transfer: An Economic Study of FIFA Football Rankings," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 85-99, March.
    10. Pirotte, Alain, 1999. "Convergence of the static estimation toward the long run effects of dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 151-158, May.
    11. Robert Hoffmann & Lee Chew Ging & Victor Matheson & Bala Ramasamy, 2006. "International women's football and gender inequality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 999-1001.
    12. Eiji Yamamura, 2009. "Technology transfer and convergence of performance: an economic study of FIFA football ranking," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 261-266.
    13. Peter Macmillan & Ian Smith, 2007. "Explaining International Soccer Rankings," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(2), pages 202-213, May.
    14. Benno Torgler, 2004. "The Economics of the FIFA Football Worldcup," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 287-300, May.
    15. Stefani Ray & Pollard Richard, 2007. "Football Rating Systems for Top-Level Competition: A Critical Survey," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-22, July.
    16. Ryall, Richard & Bedford, Anthony, 2010. "An optimized ratings-based model for forecasting Australian Rules football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 511-517, July.
    17. Robert Houston & Dennis Wilson, 2002. "Income, leisure and proficiency: an economic study of football performance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 939-943.
    18. John J. Binder & Murray Findlay, 2012. "The Effects of the Bosman Ruling on National and Club Teams in Europe," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(2), pages 107-129, April.
    19. Benno Torgler, 2004. "?Historical Excellence? in Football World Cup Tournaments: Empirical Evidence with Data From 1930 to 2002," CREMA Working Paper Series 2004-18, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    20. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    21. Andrew B. Bernard & Meghan R. Busse, 2004. "Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 413-417, February.
    22. Leitner, Christoph & Zeileis, Achim & Hornik, Kurt, 2010. "Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EUROÂ 2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 471-481, July.
    23. Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fan Xiaoyu & Wang Shasha, 2024. "Evaluating the pinnacle of football match key statistics as in‐play information for determining the match outcome of Europe's foremost leagues," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 105(3), pages 775-799, May.
    2. Hojun Sung & Brian M. Mills, 2018. "Estimation of game-level attendance in major league soccer: Outcome uncertainty and absolute quality considerations," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 519-532, December.
    3. László Csató, 2024. "Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League: Time for shift to an Elo-based formula," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 119-134, March.
    4. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "Protectionism, Competitiveness and Inequality: Cross-Country Evidence from Soccer," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 171-192, April.
    5. Chater, Mario & Arrondel, Luc & Gayant, Jean-Pascal & Laslier, Jean-François, 2021. "Fixing match-fixing: Optimal schedules to promote competitiveness," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 673-683.
    6. David Forrest & J.D Tena & Carlos Varela-Quintana, 2020. "Who wins at the Chess Olympics? The role of resources and education capital," Working Papers 202013, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    7. Lapré Michael A. & Palazzolo Elizabeth M., 2023. "The evolution of seeding systems and the impact of imbalanced groups in FIFA Men’s World Cup tournaments 1954–2022," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 19(4), pages 317-332, December.
    8. David Forrest & J. D. Tena & Carlos Varela-Quintana, 2023. "The influence of schooling on performance in chess and at the Olympics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 959-982, February.
    9. Kin-Man Wan & Ka-U Ng & Thung-Hong Lin, 2020. "The Political Economy of Football: Democracy, Income Inequality, and Men’s National Football Performance," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 981-1013, October.
    10. L'aszl'o Csat'o, 2023. "Club coefficients in the UEFA Champions League: Time for shift to an Elo-based formula," Papers 2304.09078, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    11. Oliver Engist & Erik Merkus & Felix Schafmeister, 2021. "The Effect of Seeding on Tournament Outcomes: Evidence From a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 115-136, January.
    12. Csató, László, 2023. "How to avoid uncompetitive games? The importance of tie-breaking rules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(3), pages 1260-1269.
    13. Matt Andrews, 2022. "Can Africa Compete in World Soccer?," CID Working Papers 403, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    14. Vicente Royuela & Roberto Gásquez, 2019. "On the Influence of Foreign Players on the Success of Football Clubs," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(5), pages 718-741, June.
    15. Csató, László, 2022. "Quantifying incentive (in)compatibility: A case study from sports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 717-726.
    16. Yinle Huang & Marvin Washington & Brian P. Soebbing & Daniel S. Mason, 2023. "Wearing the Same Jersey? The Impact of Players’ Cultural Diversity and Shared Team Tenure on National Soccer Team Performance," Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 160-172, September.
    17. Csató, László & Bodnár, Gergely, 2023. "Mérhetnénk jobban a csapatok erejét a Bajnokok Ligájában? Fontos megjegyzés az Európai Labdarúgó-szövetség számára [How to better measure team strength in the Champions League. An important message," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 813-827.
    18. Brad R. Humphreys & Amir B. Ferreira Neto, 2020. "Localization Economies and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Football Teams in Sao Paulo, Brazil," Working Papers 20-09, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    19. Chmait, Nader & Robertson, Sam & Westerbeek, Hans & Eime, Rochelle & Sellitto, Carmine & Reid, Machar, 2020. "Tennis superstars: The relationship between star status and demand for tickets," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 330-347.

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