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Discrete Events and Hate Crimes: The Causal Role of the Brexit Referendum

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  • Daniel Devine

Abstract

Objective The article contributes to the literature on discrete events and behavioral change among the public by studying the link between the United Kingdom's 2016 “Brexit”referendum and racial and religious hate crime. Methods Time series intervention models on daily and monthly hate crime numbers from the UK Home Office and police forces, controlling for other events such as terror attacks. A range of robustness tests including additional vector auto‐regression. Results The Brexit referendum led to a 19–23 percent increase in hate crimes, but did not lead to a longer‐term increase. The results are robust to a range of alternative specifications, and there is no evidence of a relationship between media coverage of hate crime or immigration salience and hate crimes. The results also show the consistent, large effect of terror attacks on increasing the number of hate crimes. Conclusion The Brexit referendum caused an increase in hate crimes on par with terror attacks. Discrete political events, like referendums and elections, can play a sizeable role in prejudicial behavioral change.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Devine, 2021. "Discrete Events and Hate Crimes: The Causal Role of the Brexit Referendum," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(1), pages 374-386, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:102:y:2021:i:1:p:374-386
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12896
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Murphy, Justin & Devine, Daniel, 2020. "Does Media Coverage Drive Public Support for UKIP or Does Public Support for UKIP Drive Media Coverage?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 893-910, July.
    2. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2019. "The Global Trump," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-21784-6, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick A. Stewart & Nick Lee & Erik P. Bucy & Carl Senior, 2023. "Emotional response to U.K. political party leader facial displays of affiliation, reward, and ambiguity during Brexit," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 104(3), pages 281-298, May.
    2. Carlos Arcila Calderón & Patricia Sánchez Holgado & Jesús Gómez & Marcos Barbosa & Haodong Qi & Alberto Matilla & Pilar Amado & Alejandro Guzmán & Daniel López-Matías & Tomás Fernández-Villazala, 2024. "From online hate speech to offline hate crime: the role of inflammatory language in forecasting violence against migrant and LGBT communities," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. CARR, Joel, 2022. "BLM protests and racial hate crime in the United States," Working Papers 2022008, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    4. Facundo Albornoz & Jake Bradley & Silvia Sonderegger, 2022. "Updating the Social Norm: the Case of Hate Crime after the Brexit Referendum," Working Papers 203, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

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