IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/canjag/v69y2021i1p19-25.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

President Biden's international trade agenda: Implications for the Canadian agrifood sector

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Cardwell
  • William A. Kerr

Abstract

The 4 years of the Trump administration was marked by a number of events and policies that affected the Canadian agrifood sector. Changes to preferential trade agreements, the collapse of the World Trade Organization's dispute settlement framework, increased domestic support for US farmers, and diplomatic tensions between the United States and China all shaped international trade flows and created an environment of policy uncertainty. The Biden administration will change course on several important trade policy issues. We discuss how these changes could affect the Canadian agrifood sector along a number of dimensions, including a return to multilateralism, (re)engagement in preferential trade agreements, and movements toward a less combative and more predictable trade policy agenda. We expect Canadian agrifood trade flows under the Biden administration to exceed what they would have been under a second Trump administration. Les quatre années de l'administration Trump ont été marquées par un certain nombre d'événements et de politiques qui ont affecté le secteur agroalimentaire canadien. Les modifications des accords commerciaux préférentiels, l'effondrement de l'organe de règlement des différends de l'Organisation mondiale du commerce, l'accroissement du soutien interne aux agriculteurs américains et les tensions diplomatiques entre les États‐Unis et la Chine ont tous façonné les flux commerciaux internationaux et créé un environnement d'incertitude politique. L'administration Biden changera de cap sur plusieurs questions importantes de politique commerciale. Nous discutons de la façon dont ces changements pourraient affecter le secteur agroalimentaire canadien selon un certain nombre de dimensions, y compris un retour au multilatéralisme, un (ré) engagement dans des accords commerciaux préférentiels et des mouvements vers un programme de politique commerciale moins combatif et plus prévisible. Nous prévoyons que les flux commerciaux agroalimentaires canadiens sous l'administration Biden dépasseront ce qu'ils auraient été sous une deuxième administration Trump.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Cardwell & William A. Kerr, 2021. "President Biden's international trade agenda: Implications for the Canadian agrifood sector," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(1), pages 19-25, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:69:y:2021:i:1:p:19-25
    DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12266
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/cjag.12266
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/cjag.12266?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jim Rollo & L. Alan Winters, 2000. "Subsidiarity and Governance Challenges for the WTO: Environmental and Labour Standards," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 561-576, April.
    2. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    4. Munisamy Gopinath, 2021. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Agriculture?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 604-618, June.
    5. Kerr, William A., 2018. "Eliminating the Constraints on Trade Policy – The Strategy that Underpins US Negotiations in the Trump Administration," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 19(2), December.
    6. Scott Biden & Alan P. Ker & Stephen Duff, 2020. "Impacts of trade liberalization in Canada's supply managed dairy industry," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(4), pages 535-552, July.
    7. Daniel A. Sumner & Ton Zuijdwijk, 2019. "The law and economics of Canada's WTO litigation contesting U.S. country‐of‐origin labeling (COOL)," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 67(4), pages 327-347, December.
    8. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2019. "The Global Trump," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-21784-6, June.
    9. Kerr, William A., 2020. ""Aggressive Unilateralism" - The New Focus of US Trade Policy," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 21(1), June.
    10. Ryan Cardwell & Derek G. Brewin, 2019. "Blackleg or blackmail? Economics of the Canada–China canola trade dispute," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 67(3), pages 251-260, September.
    11. repec:bla:worlde:v:23:y:2000:i:04:p:561-576 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    13. Kerr. William A., 2019. "Loopholes, Legal Interpretations and Game Playing: Whither the WTO without the Spirit of the GATT?," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 19(2), December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William A. Kerr, 2021. "Agriculture after a year with COVID‐19: Any long‐term implications for international trade policy?," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 261-267, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Mingzhe & Fan, Jiachuan & Wang, Haijun & Wang, Jie, 2023. "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-83.
    2. Li, Xiaogang, 2020. "Innovation, market valuations, policy uncertainty and trade: Theory and evidence," ISU General Staff Papers 202001010800009179, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Yin, Doudou & Si, Deng-Kui & Wang, Yun, 2024. "How does corporate investment respond to trade policy uncertainty in China? The role of political connections," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1429-1445.
    4. Hu, Debao & Lu, Jingming & Zhao, Sibo, 2024. "Does trade policy uncertainty increase commercial banks’ risk-taking? Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 532-551.
    5. Si, Deng-Kui & Zhuang, Jiali & Ge, Xinyu & Yu, Yong, 2024. "The nexus between trade policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
    7. Ketan REDDY & Subash SASIDHARAN & Shandre Mugan THANGAVELU, 2024. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Impact Firm GVC Participation? Microdata Evidence from India," Working Papers DP-2024-23, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    8. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    9. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2020. "The impact of trade policy uncertainty shocks on the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 100832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
    11. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Duration of membership in the world trade organization and investment-oriented remittances inflows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    12. Zhou, Kexuan & Kumar, Sanjay & Yu, Linhui & Jiang, Xinlin, 2021. "The economic policy uncertainty and the choice of entry mode of outward foreign direct investment: Cross-border M&A or Greenfield Investment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    15. Yang, Zhihao & Hong, Junjie, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and energy intensity: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    16. Shen, Huayu & Hou, Fei, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and corporate innovation evidence from Chinese listed firms in new energy vehicle industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    17. Xiaotao Zhao & Xiaoping Chen, 2022. "Inventory Management with Trade Policy Uncertainty," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(5), pages 128-153, September.
    18. Jakubik, Adam & Piermartini, Roberta, 2023. "How WTO commitments tame uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    19. Fiori, Giuseppe & Scoccianti, Filippo, 2023. "The economic effects of firm-level uncertainty: Evidence using subjective expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 92-105.
    20. Crowley, M. A. & Exton, O. & Han, L., 2018. "Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:69:y:2021:i:1:p:19-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caefmea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.