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Upper Secondary School Completion and the Business Cycle

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  • Rune Borgan Reiling
  • Bjarne Strøm

Abstract

Previous evidence suggests that enrollment in post-compulsory education increases (decreases) in cyclical downturns (upturns). However, little evidence exists on whether enrollment is successfully transformed into completed education. This paper adds to the literature by analyzing the relationship between completion of upper secondary education and regional unemployment using Norwegian regional panel data on students graduating from compulsory school between 1981 and 2004. We find robust evidence that completion rates are countercyclical. Our results suggest that poor labor-market conditions when starting upper secondary education have a lasting effect and motivate students to stay in school and graduate.

Suggested Citation

  • Rune Borgan Reiling & Bjarne Strøm, 2015. "Upper Secondary School Completion and the Business Cycle," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(1), pages 195-219, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:117:y:2015:i:1:p:195-219
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/sjoe.12088
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    Cited by:

    1. Gunes, Pinar Mine & Ural Marchand, Beyza, 2020. "Macroeconomic conditions and child schooling in Turkey," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Venke Furre Haaland, 2016. "The lost generation: Effects of youth labor market opportunities on long-term labor market outcomes," Discussion Papers 835, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Torberg Falch & Astrid Marie Jorde Sandsør & Bjarne Strøm, 2017. "Do Smaller Classes Always Improve Students’ Long-run Outcomes?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(5), pages 654-688, October.
    4. Barbara Sadaba & Sunčica Vujič & Sofia Maier, 2020. "Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 20-38, Bank of Canada.
    5. Jon Marius Vaag Iversen & Bjarne Strøm, 2020. "Skills, Employment, and Labor Market Institutions: Evidence from PIAAC," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 34(3), pages 277-304, September.
    6. Díaz Serrano, Lluís & Nilsson, William,, 2018. "School Dropouts and the Local Labor Markets: The Role of the Skills Structure of the Employment," Working Papers 2072/351583, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    7. Sadaba, Barbara & Vujić, Sunčica & Maier, Sofia, 2024. "Characterizing the schooling cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. By Marianne Haraldsvik & Bjarne Strøm, 2022. "Adult skills and labor market conditions during teenage years: cross-country evidence from international surveys [Is post-secondary education a safe port and for whom? Evidence from Canadian data]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 894-919.
    9. Sievertsen, Hans Henrik, 2016. "Local unemployment and the timing of post-secondary schooling," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 17-28.
    10. Ole Henning Nyhus, 2020. "When outside options bite: Labor demand in the Norwegian salmon farming industry and educational investments," Working Paper Series 18720, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    11. Simon Søbstad Bensnes & Bjarne Strøm, 2015. "Earning or learning? The impact of relaxing shop opening hours restrictions on youth employment, education and earnings," Working Paper Series 16515, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    12. Luis Diaz‐Serrano & William Nilsson, 2020. "The regional anatomy of youths' educational attainment in Spain: The role of the employment structure in local labour markets," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(5), pages 1487-1508, October.
    13. Diaz-Serrano, Luis & Nilsson, William, 2020. "The Regional Anatomy of School Dropouts in Spain: The Role of the Industry Structure of Local Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13220, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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