IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v32y2024i3p1238-1269.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spillovers from government policy during a crisis: Evidence from international trade during COVID‐19 lockdowns

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Cardoso
  • Brandon Malloy

Abstract

We examine how variation in the severity of government intervention in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic impacted trade, using a novel dataset on monthly bilateral trade flows between Canadian provinces and U.S. states. Our results show that differences in the collections of policy responses employed by states and provinces throughout the course of the pandemic have had a significant and heterogeneous impact in accounting for variation in changes in aggregate province‐state trade flows. Government interventions around workplace closures and gathering restrictions are associated with the largest drop in bilateral trade flows, especially when introduced by U.S. states and during periods when COVID‐19 case rates are rising, while many pandemic restrictions have no statistically significant impact on trade flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Cardoso & Brandon Malloy, 2024. "Spillovers from government policy during a crisis: Evidence from international trade during COVID‐19 lockdowns," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 1238-1269, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:32:y:2024:i:3:p:1238-1269
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12722
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12722
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/roie.12722?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Errami, Youssef & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The energy transition, Trump energy agenda and COVID-19," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 140-153.
    2. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Hiroshi Mukunoki, 2021. "Impacts of Lockdown Policies on International Trade," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 123-141, Summer.
    3. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 105-130, Summer.
    4. Miguel Cardoso & Brandon Malloy, 2021. "Impact of the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Trade between Canada and the United States," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 47(4), pages 554-572, December.
    5. Tommaso Giommoni & Gabriel Loumeau, 2022. "Lockdown and voting behaviour: a natural experiment on postponed elections during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(111), pages 547-599.
    6. Baldwin, John R. Fisher, Anthony Gu, Wulong Lee, Frank C Robidoux, Benoît, 2008. "Capital Intensity in Canada and the United States, 1987 to 2003," The Canadian Productivity Review 2008018e, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis Division.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Masi, G. & Giovannetti, G. & Ricchiuti, G., 2013. "Network analysis to detect common strategies in Italian foreign direct investment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(5), pages 1202-1214.
    2. Redding, Stephen & Weinstein, David, 2017. "Aggregating From Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 12446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "Global Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(2), pages 565-619, June.
    4. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2024. "The Covid‐19 pandemic and European trade flows: Evidence from a dynamic panel model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2563-2580, July.
    6. Pamela Bombarda, 2016. "Firm heterogeneity and the localization of economic activities," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95, pages 1-26, March.
    7. Gianluca Orefice & Giovanni Peri, 2020. "Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching," Working Papers DT/2020/02, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    8. Kyungmin Kim, 2018. "An analysis of Korea's export performance using US import data," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 1-24, January.
    9. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Jung, Benjamin, 2012. "The home market effect, regional inequality, and intra-industry reallocations," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 33, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    10. Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E. & Moschini, GianCarlo, 2012. "Are exporters more environmentally friendly than non-exporters? Theory and evidence," ISU General Staff Papers 201210040700001076, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Naudé, Wim & Gries, Thomas & Bilkic, Natasa, 2015. "Playing the lottery or dressing up? A model of firm-level heterogeneity and the decision to export," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-17.
    12. Marco Dueñas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2013. "Modeling the International-Trade Network: a gravity approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 155-178, April.
    13. Sonia Mukherjee, "undated". "The Role of Services in Enhancing Indian Manufacturing Exports: A Firm Level Analysis, 2000-01 to 2011-12," Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Discussion Papers 15-08, Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.
    14. Lucas Navarro, 2012. "Plant level evidence on product mix changes in Chilean manufacturing," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 165-195, February.
    15. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2017. "Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 293-351, April.
    16. Dutt, Pushan & Mihov, Ilian & Van Zandt, Timothy, 2013. "The effect of WTO on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 204-219.
    17. Joachim Wagner, 2009. "Exporte und Firmenerfolg: Welche Firmen profitieren wie vom internationalen Handel?," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 3(2), pages 109-122, October.
    18. Erbahar, Aksel & Rebeyrol, Vincent, 2023. "Trade intermediation by producers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    19. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    20. WAKASUGI Ryuhei & ZHANG Hongyong, 2015. "Impacts of the World Trade Organization on Chinese Exports," Discussion papers 15021, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:32:y:2024:i:3:p:1238-1269. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.