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The trade and welfare effects of the belt and road initiative

Author

Listed:
  • Meng Gao
  • Chenxin Jin
  • Wei Jin
  • Bin Sheng
  • Linpu Xu

Abstract

This paper evaluates the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). We estimate the partial trade effect of the BRI using the synthetic control method. By feeding the implied trade cost reduction into counterfactual equations, we simulate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the BRI based on the structural gravity model. We find that the BRI has greatly increased China's and BRI members' trade and welfare, with little impact on non‐BRI members.

Suggested Citation

  • Meng Gao & Chenxin Jin & Wei Jin & Bin Sheng & Linpu Xu, 2024. "The trade and welfare effects of the belt and road initiative," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 446-479, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:32:y:2024:i:2:p:446-479
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12665
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter H. Egger & Jie Li & Miaojie Yu, 2024. "Introduction to the special issue “China and the global economy”," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 325-327, May.

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