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Exposure of belt and road economies to China trade shocks

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  • Bastos, Paulo

Abstract

This paper uses international trade data to assess the degree of exposure of Belt and Road economies to China trade shocks. It finds that the growth of China's trade following its internal transformation and accession to the WTO significantly impacted the export performance of Belt and Road economies in the period 2000-2015. The increase in China's imports significantly boosted the exports of these economies. However, this effect was attenuated by increased competition from China in export markets. The effects of China's demand shocks were stronger in more upstream industries, while those of competition shocks were stronger in industries that produce goods that are closer to final use. The effects of competition shocks were also relatively stronger in countries that are relatively poorer and geographically closer to China. Building on these findings, the paper documents the current degree of exposure of Belt and Road economies to China trade shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Bastos, Paulo, 2020. "Exposure of belt and road economies to China trade shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:145:y:2020:i:c:s0304387820300493
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102474
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    2. Sha Fan, 2023. "Does the Belt and Road Initiative Promote Bilateral Trade? An Empirical Analysis of China and the Belt and Road Countries," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(2), pages 190-214, May.
    3. Weiming Li & Zhaoyang Cai & Shixiong Cao, 2021. "What has caused regional income inequality in China? Effects of 10 socioeconomic factors on per capita income," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13403-13417, September.
    4. Liu, Zhigao & Schindler, Seth & Liu, Weidong, 2020. "Demystifying Chinese overseas investment in infrastructure: Port development, the Belt and Road Initiative and regional development," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. He, Qing & Liu, Junyi & Yu, Jishuang, 2023. "Dancing with dragon: The RMB and developing economies’ currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Zhi Luo & Guanghua Wan & Chen Wang & Xun Zhang, 2022. "The distributive impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 586-604, July.
    7. Jing Fang & Jinghua Ou & Shujie Yao, 2022. "On COVID‐19 pandemic and China’s foreign trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3507-3533, November.
    8. Nugent, Jeffrey B. & Lu, Jiaxuan, 2021. "China's outward foreign direct investment in the Belt and Road Initiative: What are the motives for Chinese firms to invest?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Fredrik Sjöholm, 2023. "The Belt and Road Initiative: Economic Causes and Effects," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 22(1), pages 62-81, Winter/Sp.
    10. Zhang, Yun & Liu, Yun & Zhang, Yifei & Chen, Xin, 2022. "Globalization blueprint and households’ fintech debt: Evidence from China’s One Belt One Road initiative," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 38-55.
    11. Tian Zhao, 2023. "Crowding-Out or Spillover: Reassessment on the Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Innovation Efficiency," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, March.
    12. Jianhong Qi & Kam Ki Tang & Da Yin & Yong Zhao, 2020. "Remaking China’s Global Image with the Belt and Road Initiative: Is the Jury Out?," Discussion Papers Series 635, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    13. DeStefano, Timothy & Timmis, Jonathan, 2024. "Robots and export quality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Koffi Dumor & Li Yao & Jean-Paul Ainam & Edem Koffi Amouzou & Williams Ayivi, 2021. "Quantitative Dynamics Effects of Belt and Road Economies Trade Using Structural Gravity and Neural Networks," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Belt and road initiative; China; Trade shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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