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Aplikace modelů diskrétní volby k analýze příčin měnových krizí
[Application of Discrete Choice Models on Analysis of Causes of Currency Crises]

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  • Jiří Pour

Abstract

This paper analyzes an influence of some economic variables to a probability of the occurrence of currency crises. The variables were at first derived theoretically and then analyzed using logit regression on panel data for up to 78 countries of the word in 1980-2012. The analysis shows that the indicators mostly considered as measures of external economic balance - current account and net foreign assets - have not much statistical significant impact on the risk of currency crisis. Much more important is a structure of foreign liabilities in terms of liquidity - a greater share of foreign direct investments on foreign liabilities and a lower share of short term foreign debt to total debt statistically significantly reduce the risk of crises. The risk significantly decreases also with higher trade openness, faster GDP growth and underestimation of nominal exchange rate with respect to the purchasing power parity. Signs of parameters of these variables are staying unchanged even if we estimate over two thousand models.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiří Pour, 2016. "Aplikace modelů diskrétní volby k analýze příčin měnových krizí [Application of Discrete Choice Models on Analysis of Causes of Currency Crises]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 420-438.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2016:y:2016:i:4:id:1079:p:420-438
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1079
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    logit; intertemporal solvency; external imbalances; exchange market pressure index; currency crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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