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Exchange Rate Volatility and the Timing of Foreign Direct Investment: Market-Seeking versus Export-Substituting

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  • Chia-Ching Lin
  • Kun-Ming Chen
  • Hsiu-Hua Rau

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the timing of foreign direct investment (FDI) with heterogeneous investing motives. We first extend Dixit-Pindyck's real options model to show that while an increase in exchange rate volatility tends to delay FDI of a market-seeking firm, it might accelerate FDI of an export-substituting firm if the firm's degree of risk aversion is high enough. The rationale behind this finding is that a market-seeking FDI might increase the exposure of the firm's profits to exchange rate risk, while an export-substituting FDI might reduce it. Empirical evidence from a survival analysis based on firm-level data on the entry by Taiwanese firms into China over the period between 1987 and 2002 is consistent with the theory. These results reveal that the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and FDI is crucially dependent on the motives of the investing firms. Copyright (C) 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Ching Lin & Kun-Ming Chen & Hsiu-Hua Rau, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Timing of Foreign Direct Investment: Market-Seeking versus Export-Substituting," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 466-486, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:14:y:2010:i:s1:p:466-486
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mankan M. Koné & Lota D.Tamini & Carl Gaigné, 2017. "Duopolistic Competition and Optimal Switching Time from Export to FDI in Uncertainty," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2017-03, CREATE.
    3. Deseatnicov, Ivan & Klochko, Olga, 2023. "Currency risk and the dynamics of German investors entry and exit in Russia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Chia‐Ching Lin & Kun‐Ming Chen, 2022. "Market competition, exchange rate uncertainty, and foreign direct investment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 405-422, February.
    5. Jung Wan Lee, 2015. "Dynamic Relationships between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Evidence from Korea," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 73-90, March.
    6. Kun-Ming Chen & Chia-Ching Lin & Shu-Fei Yang, 2015. "Exchange Rate Movements, Foreign Direct Investment, and Domestic R&D," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 20-35, March.
    7. Qi, Jianhong & Liu, Hui & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2021. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the timing of Chinese Outward Direct Investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1193-1204.

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