IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ememar/v55y2023ics1566014123000286.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Currency risk and the dynamics of German investors entry and exit in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Deseatnicov, Ivan
  • Klochko, Olga

Abstract

Using a complete manually collected set of 3435 Russian firms with German capital in 2003–2020, we examine the effect of currency risk on the dynamics of German investors' entry and exit into the Russian market via foreign direct investment. We document that German investors were relatively tolerant towards currency risk before 2014, and became highly sensitive post 2014. We conclude that, along with geopolitical factors, the free floating exchange rate regime adopted by the Central Bank of Russia in 2014 affected the incentives of German investors. We discuss various mechanisms to explain these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Deseatnicov, Ivan & Klochko, Olga, 2023. "Currency risk and the dynamics of German investors entry and exit in Russia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:55:y:2023:i:c:s1566014123000286
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2023.101023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014123000286
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ememar.2023.101023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudia M. Buch & Jörn Kleinert, 2008. "Exchange Rates and FDI: Goods versus Capital Market Frictions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1185-1207, September.
    2. Fadinger, Harald & Cuñat, Alejandro & Alfaro, Laura & Liu, Yanping, 2018. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity: Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Hysteresis," CEPR Discussion Papers 12943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Cushman, David O. & De Vita, Glauco, 2017. "Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 143-163.
    4. Mr. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," IMF Working Papers 1992/020, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Yury Simachev & Mikhail Kuzyk & Nikolay Zudin, 2016. "Import Dependence and Import Substitution in Russian Manufacturing: A Business Viewpoint," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 10(4), pages 25-45.
    6. Conconi, Paola & Sapir, André & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2016. "The internationalization process of firms: From exports to FDI," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 16-30.
    7. Takagi, Shinji & Shi, Zongying, 2011. "Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia, 1987–2008," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 265-272.
    8. repec:bla:rdevec:v:14:y:2010:i:s1:p:466-486 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    10. Marta Domínguez-Jiménez & Niclas Frederic Poitiers, 2020. "An analysis of EU FDI inflow into Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 6(2), pages 144-161, June.
    11. Kuzmina, Olga & Volchkova, Natalya & Zueva, Tatiana, 2014. "Foreign direct investment and governance quality in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 874-891.
    12. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    13. Laura Alfaro & Alejandro Cuñat & Harald Fadinger & Yanping Liu, 2017. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Asymmetries and Hysteresis," Harvard Business School Working Papers 18-044, Harvard Business School, revised May 2018.
    14. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    15. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    16. Svetlana Ledyaeva & Päivi Karhunen & Riitta Kosonen & John Whalley, 2015. "Offshore Foreign Direct Investment, Capital Round-Tripping, and Corruption: Empirical Analysis of Russian Regions," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 91(3), pages 305-341, July.
    17. Christian Schmidt & Udo Broll, 2009. "Real exchange-rate uncertainty and US foreign direct investment: an empirical analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 513-530, October.
    18. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    19. Gumpert, Anna & Li, Haishi & Moxnes, Andreas & Ramondo, Natalia & Tintelnot, Felix, 2020. "The life-cycle dynamics of exporters and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    20. Fukunari Kimura & Kozo Kiyota, 2006. "Exports, FDI, and Productivity: Dynamic Evidence from Japanese Firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(4), pages 695-719, December.
    21. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
    22. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    23. Svetlana Ledyaeva, 2009. "Spatial Econometric Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment Determinants in Russian Regions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 643-666, April.
    24. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 890-922, December.
    25. Andrew Abbott & David O. Cushman & Glauco De Vita, 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 95-107, February.
    26. Ksenia Gonchar & Philipp Marek, 2014. "The regional distribution of foreign investment in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(4), pages 605-634, October.
    27. Hai Yue Liu & Ivan Deseatnicov, 2016. "Exchange rate and Chinese outward FDI," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4961-4976, November.
    28. Takao Itagaki, 1981. "The Theory of the Multinational Firm under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 276-297, May.
    29. Svetlana Ledyaeva & Päivi Karhunen & Riitta Kosonen & John Whalley, 2015. "Offshore Foreign Direct Investment, Capital Round-Tripping, and Corruption: Empirical Analysis of Russian Regions," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 91(3), pages 305-341, July.
    30. Ivan Deseatnicov & Konstantin Kucheryavyy & Kyoji Fukao, . "Exports, trade costs and FDI entry: evidence from Japanese firms," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    31. Gonchar, Ksenia & Greve, Maria, 2022. "The impact of political risk on FDI exit decisions," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    32. Alfaro, Laura & Cunat, Alejandro & Liu, Yanping & Fadinger, Harald, 2018. "The real exchange rate, innovation and productivity : regional heterogeneity, asymmetries and hysteresis," Working Papers 18-05, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    33. Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-622, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. Veeramani & Abha Shukla & Mariam Jamaleh, 2020. "Financial theories of foreign direct investment: a review of literature," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(2), pages 185-217, June.
    2. Shi Li & Hironobu Nakagawa, 2022. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: Evidence from Chinese firm‐level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2902-2923, September.
    3. Firoozi, Fathali, 1997. "Multinationals FDI and uncertainty: an exposition," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-273, October.
    4. Qi, Jianhong & Liu, Hui & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2021. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the timing of Chinese Outward Direct Investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1193-1204.
    5. Matthias Busse & Carsten Hefeker & Signe Nelgen, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 843-858.
    6. Takagi, Shinji & Shi, Zongying, 2011. "Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia, 1987–2008," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 265-272.
    7. Lord Mensah & Godfred Alufar Bokpin & Eric Dei Fosu-Hene, 2017. "Foreign exchange rate moments and FDI in Ghana," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 136-152, January.
    8. Lee, Bong-Soo & Min, Byung S., 2011. "Exchange rates and FDI strategies of multinational enterprises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 586-603, November.
    9. Cushman, David O. & De Vita, Glauco, 2017. "Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 143-163.
    10. Zerin Jannat, 2020. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Evidence from South Asia," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 10(3), pages 101-116.
    11. Rajesh Chakrabarti & Barry Scholnick, 2002. "Exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(1), pages 1-21, March.
    12. Russ, Katheryn, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money, Entry, and Multinational Firms," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9xr4f238, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    13. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
    14. Warren Moraghen & Boopen Seetanah & Noor Sookia, 2021. "Impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment inflow for Mauritius: A dynamic time series approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(4), pages 581-591, December.
    15. Chia‐Ching Lin & Kun‐Ming Chen, 2022. "Market competition, exchange rate uncertainty, and foreign direct investment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 405-422, February.
    16. Goldberg, Linda S & Kolstad, Charles D, 1995. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 855-873, November.
    17. Zainab Jehan & Azooba Hamid, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and capital inflows: role of financial development," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 189-203, December.
    18. Mankan M. Koné & Carl Gaigné & Lota Tamini, 2017. "Duopolistic Competition and Optimal Switching Time from Export to FDI in Uncertainty," CIRANO Working Papers 2017s-23, CIRANO.
    19. Arbeláez, Harvey & Ruiz, Isabel, 2013. "Macroeconomic antecedents to U.S. investment in Latin America," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 439-447.
    20. Gurshev Oleg, 2023. "Foreign direct investment and international trade across the former Soviet economies: What do we know after 30 years of research?," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 45(1), pages 290-318, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free float exchange rate regime; FDI dynamics; Multinational enterprises; Currency risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:55:y:2023:i:c:s1566014123000286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.