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The Phasing of Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

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  • Emanuele Baldacci
  • Benedict Clements
  • Sanjeev Gupta
  • Carlos Mulas‐Granados

Abstract

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back‐loaded fiscal adjustments have the highest likelihood of success. Fiscal consolidations based on expenditure cuts increase the probability of approaching and achieving fiscal sustainability but are insufficient to maintain it unless accompanied by revenue reforms. Adjustment episodes launched in countries where governments enjoy a parliamentary majority and do not face imminent elections, are found to be more successful. Fiscal consolidations undertaken under IMF‐supported programs also have a higher probability of success.

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  • Emanuele Baldacci & Benedict Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas‐Granados, 2006. "The Phasing of Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 612-631, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:10:y:2006:i:4:p:612-631
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2006.00336.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Diniz, André, 2016. "Effects of fiscal consolidations in Latin America," Textos para discussão 423, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    4. Philippe Burger & Estian Calitz, 2021. "Covid‐19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(1), pages 3-24, March.
    5. Schaltegger, Christoph A. & Feld, Lars P., 2009. "Are fiscal adjustments less successful in decentralized governments?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 115-123, March.
    6. Yacoub Alatrash & Gani Nurmukhametov, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Effectiveness Under Different Debt Regimes: The Case of Egypt," Working Papers 1527, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Dec 2021.
    7. Eugene Msizi BUTHELEZI, 2023. "Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Government Debt in South Africa: Evidence to Structural and Cyclical Effect," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23.
    8. Philippe Burger & Krige Siebrits & Estian Calitz, 2016. "Fiscal Consolidation and the Public Sector Balance Sheet in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(4), pages 501-519, December.
    9. Dirk Foremny & Agnese Sacchi & Simone Salotti, 2017. "Decentralization and the duration of fiscal consolidation: shifting the burden across layers of government," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 359-387, June.
    10. Philippe Burger & Krige Siebrits & Estian Calitz, 2015. "The public sector balance sheet and fiscal consolidation in South Africa," Working Papers 11/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.

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