IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2004-157.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Benedict J. Clements
  • Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
  • Mr. Emanuele Baldacci
  • Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados

Abstract

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back-loaded fiscal adjustments have the highest likelihood of success. Fiscal consolidations based on expenditure cuts increase the probability of approaching and achieving fiscal sustainability but are insufficient to maintain it unless accompanied by revenue reforms. Adjustment episodes launched in countries where governments enjoy a parliamentary majority and do not face imminent elections, are found to be more successful. Fiscal consolidations undertaken under IMF-supported programs also have a higher probability of success.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2004. "Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?," IMF Working Papers 2004/157, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/157
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=17666
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippine Cour & Eric Dubois & Selma Mahfouz & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1996. "The Cost of Fiscal Retrenchment Revisited: how Strong is the Evidence?," Working Papers 1996-16, CEPII research center.
    2. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2002. "Political economics and public finance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1549-1659, Elsevier.
    3. Alberto F. Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 13-36, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 1999. "Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits in the European Union," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 209-232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    6. Roubini, Nouriel & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 1989. "Political and economic determinants of budget deficits in the industrial democracies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-933, May.
    7. Lambertini, Luisa & Jose Tavares, 2002. "Exchange rates and fiscal adjustments: evidence from the OECD and implications for EMU," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp412, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    8. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
    9. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Soojin Moon & Mr. Ales Bulir, 2003. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable?," IMF Working Papers 2003/038, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Beck, Thorsten & Clarke, George & Groff, Alberto & Keefer, Philip & Walsh, Patrick, 2000. "New tools and new tests in comparative political economy - the database of political institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2283, The World Bank.
    12. Jürgen von Hagen & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rolf Strauch, 2001. "Budgetary Consolidation in EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 148, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti & José Tavares, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 197-266.
    14. Marco Buti & Paul van den Noord, 2003. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy and Elections: The Experience of the Early Years of EMU," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 351, OECD Publishing.
    15. Catriona Purfield, 2003. "Fiscal Adjustment in Transition : Evidence from the 1990s," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 43-62, January.
    16. Miss Catriona Purfield, 2003. "Fiscal Adjustment in Transition Countries: Evidence From the 1990's," IMF Working Papers 2003/036, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Perotti, Roberto & Kontopoulos, Yianos, 2002. "Fragmented fiscal policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 191-222, November.
    18. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    19. Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Erwin H Tiongson & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2003. "What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2003/224, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Dicks-Mireaux, Louis & Mecagni, Mauro & Schadler, Susan, 2000. "Evaluating the effect of IMF lending to low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 495-526, April.
    21. Hallerberg, Mark & von Hagen, Jürgen, 1997. "Electoral Institutions, Cabinet Negotiations, and Budget Deficits within the European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 1555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Reyes Maroto Illera & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2002. "Duration of Fiscal Budgetary Consolidations in the European Union," European Economy Group Working Papers 18, European Economy Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lavigne, Robert, 2011. "The political and institutional determinants of fiscal adjustment: Entering and exiting fiscal distress," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 17-35, March.
    2. Salih BARIŞIK & Abdullah BARIS, 2017. "Impact of governance on budget deficit in developing countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 111-130, Summer.
    3. Tobignaré Yabré & Gervasio Semedo, 2021. "Political stability and fiscal consolidation in sub‐Saharan African countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 1077-1109, April.
    4. Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2005. "Underlying Factors Driving Fiscal Effort in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2005/106, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Tassos Giannitsis & Stavros Zografakis, 2018. "Crisis management in Greece," IMK Studies 58-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Rishi Goyal, 2006. "Volatility and Growth in Latin America: An Episodic Approach," IMF Working Papers 2006/287, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Julio Escolano & Laura Jaramillo & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados & Mr. G. Terrier, 2014. "How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 2014/179, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Wiese, Rasmus & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2018. "Can successful fiscal adjustments only be achieved by spending cuts?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 145-166.
    9. Robert Lavigne, 2006. "The Institutional and Political Determinants of Fiscal Adjustment," Staff Working Papers 06-1, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emanuele Baldacci & Benedict Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas‐Granados, 2006. "The Phasing of Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 612-631, November.
    2. Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2010. "Restoring Debt Sustainability After Crises: Implications for the Fiscal Mix," IMF Working Papers 2010/232, International Monetary Fund.
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1769 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ali BAYAR & Bram SMEETS, 2009. "Excessive Deficits in the European Union: An Analysis of Entry and Exit Dynamics," EcoMod2009 21500011, EcoMod.
    5. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1769 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ant�nio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    9. Marcela Eslava, 2011. "The Political Economy Of Fiscal Deficits: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 645-673, September.
    10. António Afonso, 2007. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: part of conventional wisdom?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 50, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Robert Lavigne, 2006. "The Institutional and Political Determinants of Fiscal Adjustment," Staff Working Papers 06-1, Bank of Canada.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1769 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1769 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jochimsen, Beate & Thomasius, Sebastian, 2014. "The perfect finance minister: Whom to appoint as finance minister to balance the budget," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 390-408.
    15. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2005. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Short-Term Trade-Off between economic growth and equality," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 172(1), pages 61-92, June.
    16. Julia Darby & V. Anton Muscatelli & Graeme Roy, "undated". "Fiscal Federalism and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from an Event Study," Working Papers 2005_21, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2005.
    17. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal stabilizations: When do they work and why," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1047-1074, October.
    18. Ali Bayar & Bram Smeets, 2009. "Government Deficits in the European Union: An Analysis of Entry and Exit Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 2703, CESifo.
    19. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2003. "The Trade-Off between Growth & Equality and the Economic Impact of Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Strategies in the EU," European Economy Group Working Papers 20, European Economy Group.
    20. Gabriele Giudice & Alessandro Turrini & Jan in’t Veld, 2007. "Non-Keynesian Fiscal Adjustments? A Close Look at Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in the EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 613-630, November.
    21. Reyes Maroto Illera & Carlos Mulas-Granados, "undated". "Duration of Fiscal Consolidations in the European Union," Working Papers 2001-19, FEDEA.
    22. Oliver Pamp, 2008. "Partisan Preferences and Political Institutions: Explaining Fiscal Retrenchment in the European Union," European Political Economy Review, European Political Economy Infrastructure Consortium, vol. 8(Spring), pages 4-39.
    23. Mika Tujula & Guido Wolswijk, 2007. "Budget balances in OECD countries: what makes them change?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-14, March.
    24. Guerguil, Martine & Mandon, Pierre & Tapsoba, René, 2017. "Flexible fiscal rules and countercyclical fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 189-220.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2004/157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.