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Age cohort effects on unemployment in the USA: Evidence from the regional level

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  • Carsten Ochsen

Abstract

Since the early 1970s, it was argued that shifts from relatively smaller to larger youth cohorts in the labor force raise the unemployment rate. In contrast, using US state‐level data, two studies come to a contrary conclusion. I provide a theoretical framework for local labor markets that considers age cohort differences in labor market characteristics. Using a spatial panel data model and US county‐level data (2000–2014), the estimates provide strong evidence that aging of the working‐age population reduces overall unemployment by almost 1 percentage point. Long‐run effects that consider local feedbacks are even larger. Desde principios de la década de 1970, se ha debatido que el cambio de cohortes jóvenes relativamente más pequeñas a más grandes en la fuerza laboral aumenta la tasa de desempleo. En cambio, mediante el uso de datos a nivel estatal de Estados Unidos, dos estudios llegan a una conclusión opuesta. Se proporciona un marco teórico para los mercados de trabajo locales que tiene en cuenta las diferencias de edad de las cohortes en las características del mercado laboral. Mediante la utilización de un modelo de datos de panel espacial y datos a nivel de condado de los EE.UU. (2000–2014), las estimaciones aportan pruebas sólidas de que el envejecimiento de la edad productiva de la población reduce el desempleo general en casi un punto porcentual. Los efectos a largo plazo que tienen en cuenta las retroalimentaciones locales son incluso mayores. 1970年初頭以来、労働力における若者集団の割合が、比較的低い割合から、比較的高い割合へと移行することが失業率を上昇させると論じられてきた。ところが、米国の州レベルのデータを用いた2つの研究ではこれに相反する結論に達した。本稿では、労働市場の特性における年齢別集団の違いを考慮した地域労働市場の理論的フレームワークを提示する。空間パネルデータモデルと米国の郡レベルのデータ(2000~2014年)を用いた推計値から、労働年齢人口の高齢化が全体的な失業率をほぼ1%低下させることを示す強力なエビデンスが得られる。地域のフィードバックを考慮した長期的な影響はさらに大きいものである。

Suggested Citation

  • Carsten Ochsen, 2021. "Age cohort effects on unemployment in the USA: Evidence from the regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 1025-1053, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:100:y:2021:i:4:p:1025-1053
    DOI: 10.1111/pirs.12599
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruce Fallick & Christopher L. Foote, 2022. "The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States," Working Papers 22-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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    JEL classification:

    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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