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Poverty, Inequality, and Fertility: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Global Poverty Reduction

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  • Frank‐Borge Wietzke

Abstract

Global poverty has fallen dramatically over the past decades. In many developing countries, this transformation was accompanied by rapid improvements in demographic outcomes, such as falling child mortality and fertility. Yet, recent theorizing and empirical research into the causes of global poverty reduction has mostly omitted demographic factors. This paper aims to fill this gap by testing for effects of demographic variables on poverty. Using time series data for 140 countries, we document a strong effect of lagged fertility on country‐specific poverty rates. This effect is robust across several specifications and data sets. It appears to be stronger in countries with larger fertility differentials, in the early transition stages. The proposed mechanism behind this result is a “Kuznets curve‐type” expansion of fertility inequality at the onset of the demographic transition. We conclude by calling for a stronger inclusion of demographic variables in the distribution‐sensitive analysis of global poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank‐Borge Wietzke, 2020. "Poverty, Inequality, and Fertility: The Contribution of Demographic Change to Global Poverty Reduction," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(1), pages 65-99, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:46:y:2020:i:1:p:65-99
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12317
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    3. Polyzos, Efstathios & Kuck, Simon & Abdulrahman, Khadija, 2022. "Demographic change and economic growth: The role of natural resources in the MENA region," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13.
    4. James Ming Chen & Mira Zovko & Nika Šimurina & Vatroslav Zovko, 2021. "Fear in a Handful of Dust: The Epidemiological, Environmental, and Economic Drivers of Death by PM 2.5 Pollution," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-59, August.
    5. Hanzhi Hu, 2023. "The Consequences of Fertility Decline on Educational Attainment in China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-30, December.
    6. Martin Limbikani Mwale & Tony Mwenda Kamninga, 2024. "Unintended consequences of farm input subsidies: women’s contraceptive usage and knock-on effects on children," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-28, September.
    7. Chiara Mussida & Dario Sciulli, 2023. "Childbirth and poverty in Europe: A dynamic bivariate approach," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(1), pages 34-59, March.
    8. Khawar Afreen & Patrizia Ordine & Giuseppe Rose, 2024. "Association between Education and Fertility: New Evidence from the Study in Pakistan," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, September.
    9. Patrik Rovný & Serhiy Moroz & Jozef Palkovič & Elena Horská, 2021. "Impact of Demographic Structure on Economic Development of Ukrainian Coastal Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.

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