IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/pacecr/v23y2018i3p385-410.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Meta‐Analysis of Chinese Business Cycle Correlation

Author

Listed:
  • Jarko Fidrmuc
  • Iikka Korhonen

Abstract

We review previous research on China's business cycle correlation with other economies applying meta‐analysis. We survey 71 papers analysing the different periods of Chinese economic development since the 1950s that were published in English or Chinese. We confirm that Pacific Rim economies in particular have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. It appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese‐language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite this, we do not detect robust evidence for publication bias in the papers. Moreover, we show that the broad evidence does not confirm the popular decoupling hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2018. "Meta‐Analysis of Chinese Business Cycle Correlation," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 385-410, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:23:y:2018:i:3:p:385-410
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0106.12173
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12173
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1468-0106.12173?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Soyoung Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee, 2012. "Real and Financial Integration in East Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 332-349, May.
    2. Sato, Kiyotaka & Zhang, Zhaoyong & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "Identifying shocks in regionally integrated East Asian economies with structural VAR and block exogeneity," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1353-1364.
    3. Vu Tuan Khai, 2009. "Re-examining Symmetry of Shocks for East Asia: Results Using a VAR with Sign Restrictions," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-042, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    5. Genberg, Hans & Siklos, Pierre L., 2010. "Revisiting the shocking aspects of Asian monetary unification," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 445-455, October.
    6. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    7. Thiam Hee NG, 2002. "Should The Southeast Asian Countries Form A Currency Union?," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 40(2), pages 113-134, June.
    8. Soyoung Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee & Cyn‐Young Park, 2011. "Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 23-53, January.
    9. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia's Decoupling: Fact, Fairytale or Forecast?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344, August.
    10. Takeuchi, Fumihide, 2011. "The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 441-459.
    11. Dong He & Wei Liao, 2012. "Asian Business Cycle Synchronization," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 106-135, February.
    12. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
    13. Kumakura, Masanaga, 2006. "Trade and business cycle co-movements in Asia-Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 622-645, October.
    14. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2010. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 293-303, June.
    15. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Koh, Sharon G.M., 2012. "The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 96-102.
    16. Babecký, Jan & Campos, Nauro F., 2011. "Does reform work? An econometric survey of the reform-growth puzzle," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 140-158, June.
    17. Obiyathulla Ismath Bacha, 2008. "A common currency area for ASEAN? issues and feasibility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 515-529.
    18. Sylvain Leduc & Mark M. Spiegel, 2013. "Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 345-369, August.
    19. Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2006. "Is currency union a feasible option in East Asia?: A multivariate structural VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 77-94, March.
    20. Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Whither A Currency Union in Greater China?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-370, July.
    21. Ashenfelter, Orley & Harmon, Colm & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1999. "A review of estimates of the schooling/earnings relationship, with tests for publication bias," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-470, November.
    22. Chi Gong & Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Economic Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 12(1), pages 76-99, Winter/Sp.
    23. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
    24. Xu, Xinpeng, 2006. "A currency union for Hong Kong and Mainland China?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 894-911, October.
    25. Paul De Grauwe & Cláudia Costa Storti & Cláudia Costa Storti, 2004. "The Effects of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1224, CESifo.
    26. Gary Madden & Scott Savage & Andrew McDonald, 2000. "Assessing the Economic Preconditions for a Yen Bloc," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 25-32, March.
    27. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, July.
    28. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya, 2014. "Demand and supply drivers of foreign currency loans in CEECs: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 26-42.
    29. Rana, Pradumna B., 2006. "Economic Integration in East Asia: Trends, Prospects, and a Possible Roadmap," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 2, Asian Development Bank.
    30. Hsiao Chink Tang, 2006. "An Asian Monetary Union?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    31. T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer.
    32. AkIn, Cigdem & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2008. "Changing nature of North-South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-28, February.
    33. Choe, Jong-Il, 2001. "An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 569-586.
    34. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2005. "The Income Elasticity of Money Demand: A Meta‐Analysis of Empirical Results," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 513-533, July.
    35. Changmo AHN & Hong‐Bum KIM & Dongkoo CHANG, 2006. "Is East Asia Fit For An Optimum Currency Area? An Assessment Of The Economic Feasibility Of A Higher Degree Of Monetary Cooperation In East Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 288-305, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Mileva, Mariya, 2016. "Inter-industry trade and business cycle dynamics," Kiel Working Papers 2041, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gunby, Philip & Jin, Yinghua & Robert Reed, W., 2017. "Did FDI Really Cause Chinese Economic Growth? A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 242-255.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Lind, Ronja, 2020. "Macroeconomic impact of Basel III: Evidence from a meta-analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    2. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization in Asia-Pacific: New evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-33.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111109 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2018. "Meta‐Analysis of Chinese Business Cycle Correlation," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 385-410, August.
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111109 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Lind, Ronja, 2020. "Macroeconomic impact of Basel III: Evidence from a meta-analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    8. Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek, 2014. "Structural reforms and growth in transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 22(1), pages 13-42, January.
    9. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2013. "Southeast Asian monetary integration: New evidences from fractional cointegration of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 394-412.
    10. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen & Ivana Bátorová, 2013. "China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(2), pages 392-411, June.
    11. Sharada Nia Davidson, 2022. "Regional Integration and Decoupling in the Asia Pacific: A Bayesian Panel VAR Approach," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 773-807, December.
    12. Shruthi Jayaram, 2009. "Examining the Decoupling Hypothesis for India," Working Papers id:2119, eSocialSciences.
    13. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2010. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 293-303, June.
    14. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 35-89.
    15. Yannick BINEAU, 2010. "A Empirical Assessment of the Feldstein and Horioka Literature," EcoMod2010 259600030, EcoMod.
    16. Ong, Sheue Li & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2018. "Regional or global shock? A global VAR analysis of Asian economic and financial integration," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 232-248.
    17. Tomas Havranek, 2013. "Publication Bias in Measuring Intertemporal Substitution," Working Papers IES 2013/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2013.
    18. Ian Babetskii & Nauro Campos, 2006. "Does Reform Work? An Econometric Examination of the Reform-Growth Puzzle," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp870, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    19. Babecký, Jan & Campos, Nauro F., 2011. "Does reform work? An econometric survey of the reform-growth puzzle," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 140-158, June.
    20. Chris Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2013. "Are All Economic Facts Greatly Exaggerated? Theory Competition And Selectivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 316-339, April.
    21. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Mariya Hake, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Currency Loans in CESEE Countries: A Meta-Analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 69-87.
    22. Urom, Christian & Guesmi, Khaled & Abid, Ilyes & Dagher, Leila, 2023. "Dynamic integration and transmission channels among interest rates and oil price shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 296-317.
    23. Maria Cipollina & Luca Salvatici, 2010. "Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta‐Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 63-80, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:23:y:2018:i:3:p:385-410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1361-374X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.