IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/obuest/v75y2013i2p307-321.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with an Application to House Price Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio F. Galvao JR.
  • Gabriel Montes-Rojas
  • Sung Y. Park

Abstract

This paper studies quantile regression in an autoregressive dynamic framework with exogenous stationary covariates. Hence, we develop a quantile autoregressive distributed lag model (QADL). We show that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. Inference based on Wald and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for general linear restrictions is proposed. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to evaluate the properties of the estimators. We demonstrate the potential of the QADL model with an application to house price returns in the United Kingdom. The results show that house price returns present a heterogeneous autoregressive behavior across the quantiles. The real GDP growth and interest rates also have an asymmetric impact on house prices variations.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio F. Galvao JR. & Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Sung Y. Park, 2013. "Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with an Application to House Price Returns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(2), pages 307-321, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:75:y:2013:i:2:p:307-321
    DOI: 10.1111/obes.2013.75.issue-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/10.1111/obes.2013.75.issue-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/obes.2013.75.issue-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiviet, Jan F. & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1997. "Exact tests in single equation autoregressive distributed lag models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 325-353, October.
    2. Neocleous, Tereza & Portnoy, Stephen, 2008. "On monotonicity of regression quantile functions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(10), pages 1226-1229, August.
    3. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
    4. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    5. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    6. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    7. Herce, Miguel A., 1996. "Asymptotic Theory of LAD Estimation in a Unit Root Process with Finite Variance Errors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 129-153, March.
    8. Leslie Rosenthal, 2006. "Efficiency and Seasonality in the UK Housing Market, 1991–2001," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 289-317, June.
    9. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    10. Koenker, Roger & Zhao, Quanshui, 1996. "Conditional Quantile Estimation and Inference for Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 793-813, December.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    12. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
    13. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Boom in, bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 755-766, April.
    14. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    15. Machado, José A.F., 1993. "Robust Model Selection and M-Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 478-493, June.
    16. Powell, James L., 1986. "Censored regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 143-155, June.
    17. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Dennis R. Capozza & Charlotte Mack & Patric H. Hendershott & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "The Determinants of House Price Dynamics," ERES eres2002_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    19. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hansen, Christian, 2006. "Instrumental quantile regression inference for structural and treatment effect models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 491-525, June.
    20. Pollard, David, 1991. "Asymptotics for Least Absolute Deviation Regression Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 186-199, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
    2. Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    3. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints (Revised Version)," Discussion Papers in Economics 494, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    4. Gunther Maier & Shanaka Herath, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency: A Survey of Literature," SRE-Disc sre-disc-2009_07, Institute for Multilevel Governance and Development, Department of Socioeconomics, Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for conditional quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 137-164, September.
    6. Hiller, Norbert & Lerbs, Oliver W., 2016. "Aging and urban house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 276-291.
    7. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    8. Sven Rady, 1998. "Housing Market Fluctuations in a Life-Cycle Economy with Credit Constraints," FMG Discussion Papers dp296, Financial Markets Group.
    9. Alter, Adrian & Mahoney, Elizabeth M., 2021. "Local house-price vulnerability: Evidence from the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Robert Edelstein & Desmond Tsang, 2007. "Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 295-313, October.
    11. Xiao, Zhijie, 2009. "Quantile cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 248-260, June.
    12. Uwe Hassler & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2016. "Quantile Regression for Long Memory Testing: A Case of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 693-724.
    13. Rizi, Majid Haghani, 2021. "What moves housing markets: A state-space approach of the price-income ratio," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 96-107.
    14. Tae-Hwan Kim & Halbert White, 2003. "Estimation, Inference, And Specification Testing For Possibly Misspecified Quantile Regression," Advances in Econometrics, in: Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models: Twenty Years Later, pages 107-132, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    15. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    16. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2011. "Quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 142-157, September.
    17. Komunjer, Ivana, 2013. "Quantile Prediction," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 961-994, Elsevier.
    18. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics - Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 126-139, June.
    19. Wen, Xing-Chun & He, Ling-Yun, 2015. "Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China’s housing market fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 257-268.
    20. Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Fernández‐Val & Blaise Melly, 2013. "Inference on Counterfactual Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(6), pages 2205-2268, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:75:y:2013:i:2:p:307-321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.