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Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China’s housing market fluctuations

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  • Wen, Xing-Chun
  • He, Ling-Yun

Abstract

There is a bitter controversy over what drives the housing price in China in the existing literature. In this paper, we investigate the underlying driving force behind housing price fluctuations in China, especially focusing on the role of housing demand shock with that of money supply shock in explaining housing price movements, by a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Empirical results suggest that it is housing demand, instead of money supply, that mainly drives China’s housing price movements. Relevant policy implication is further discussed, namely, whether to consider the housing price fluctuations in the conduct of monetary policy. By means of the policy simulations, we find that a real house price-augmented money supply rule is a better monetary policy for China’s economy stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen, Xing-Chun & He, Ling-Yun, 2015. "Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China’s housing market fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 257-268.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:432:y:2015:i:c:p:257-268
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.03.040
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    7. Chunping Liu & Zhirong Ou, 2022. "Revisiting the determinants of house prices in China’s megacities: Cross‐sectional heterogeneity, interdependencies and spillovers," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(3), pages 255-277, June.
    8. Hu, Zhining, 2022. "Six types of government policies and housing prices in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Vanags Jānis & Geipele Ineta & Sarkans Auseklis & Usenieks Didzis, 2017. "Housing Heterogeneity Dimensions and Their Elements: a Systemic Approach," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 5(1), pages 23-37, November.

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