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Killing the Law of Large Numbers: Mortality Risk Premiums and the Sharpe Ratio

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  • M. A. Milevsky
  • S. D. Promislow
  • V. R. Young

Abstract

We provide an overview of how the law of large numbers breaks down when pricing life‐contingent claims under stochastic as opposed to deterministic mortality (probability, hazard) rates. In a stylized situation, we derive the limiting per‐policy risk and show that it goes to a non‐zero constant. This is in contrast to the classical situation when the underlying mortality decrements are known with certainty, per policy risk goes to zero. We decompose the standard deviation per policy into systematic and non‐systematic components, akin to the analysis of individual stock (equity) risk in a Markowitz portfolio framework. Finally, we draw upon the financial analogy of the Sharpe Ratio to develop a premium pricing methodology under aggregate mortality risk.

Suggested Citation

  • M. A. Milevsky & S. D. Promislow & V. R. Young, 2006. "Killing the Law of Large Numbers: Mortality Risk Premiums and the Sharpe Ratio," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 673-686, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:73:y:2006:i:4:p:673-686
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2006.00194.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Friedberg Leora & Webb Anthony, 2007. "Life Is Cheap: Using Mortality Bonds to Hedge Aggregate Mortality Risk," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Ze & Chen, Bingzheng & Dhaene, Jan & Yang, Tianyu, 2021. "Fair dynamic valuation of insurance liabilities via convex hedging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Huang, Rachel J. & Tsai, Jeffrey T. & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2008. "Government-provided annuities under insolvency risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 377-385, December.
    3. Ting Wang & Virginia R. Young, 2010. "Hedging Pure Endowments with Mortality Derivatives," Papers 1011.0248, arXiv.org.
    4. Wang, Ting & Young, Virginia R., 2016. "Hedging pure endowments with mortality derivatives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 238-255.
    5. Bauer, Daniel & Börger, Matthias & Ruß, Jochen, 2010. "On the pricing of longevity-linked securities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 139-149, February.
    6. Bisetti, Emilio & Favero, Carlo A. & Nocera, Giacomo & Tebaldi, Claudio, 2017. "A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation with Longevity Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 2251-2275, October.
    7. Hanbali, Hamza & Denuit, Michel & Dhaene, Jan & Trufin, Julien, 2019. "A dynamic equivalence principle for systematic longevity risk management," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 158-167.
    8. Benjamin Avanzi & Lewis de Felice, 2023. "Optimal Strategies for the Decumulation of Retirement Savings under Differing Appetites for Liquidity and Investment Risks," Papers 2312.14355, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    9. Anja De Waegenaere & Bertrand Melenberg & Ralph Stevens, 2010. "Longevity Risk," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 151-192, June.
    10. Nendel, Max & Riedel, Frank & Schmeck, Maren Diane, 2021. "A decomposition of general premium principles into risk and deviation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 193-209.
    11. M. Martin Boyer & Joanna Mejza & Lars Stentoft, 2014. "Measuring Longevity Risk: An Application to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police Pension Plan," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 37-59, March.
    12. Catherine Donnelly, 2011. "Quantifying mortality risk in small defined-benefit pension schemes," Papers 1107.1380, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
    13. Matheus R Grasselli & Sebastiano Silla, 2009. "A policyholder's utility indifference valuation model for the guaranteed annuity option," Papers 0908.3196, arXiv.org.
    14. Bayraktar, Erhan & Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S. & Young, Virginia R., 2009. "Valuation of mortality risk via the instantaneous Sharpe ratio: Applications to life annuities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 676-691, March.
    15. Christophette Blanchet-Scalliet & Etienne Chevalier & Idris Kharroubi & Thomas Lim, 2015. "Max–Min Optimization Problem For Variable Annuities Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(08), pages 1-35, December.
    16. Helena Aro, 2013. "Systematic and non-systematic mortality risk in pension portfolios," Papers 1307.8020, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2013.
    17. Barigou, Karim & Chen, Ze & Dhaene, Jan, 2019. "Fair dynamic valuation of insurance liabilities: Merging actuarial judgement with market- and time-consistency," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 19-29.
    18. Schmeck, Maren Diane & Schmidli, Hanspeter, 2021. "Mortality options: The point of view of an insurer," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 98-115.
    19. Susanna Levantesi & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2017. "Maximum Market Price of Longevity Risk under Solvency Regimes: The Case of Solvency II," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-21, May.
    20. Tsai, Jeffrey T. & Wang, Jennifer L. & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2010. "On the optimal product mix in life insurance companies using conditional value at risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 235-241, February.

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