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Combining police perceptions with police records of serious crime areas: a modelling approach

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  • Robert Haining
  • Jane Law

Abstract

Summary. The paper investigates the location of serious crime neighbourhoods in Sheffield, England, in 1998 on the basis of two sources of data: senior police officer perceptions of where such neighbourhoods are and the evidence that is contained in the police's own database of recorded crime. We report the results of modelling these two spatial distributions by using 2001 census data on output areas. We also demonstrate how expert knowledge might be combined with the evidence that is contained in large georeferenced databases. We conclude with an evaluation of the use of model‐based approaches to identifying high crime areas. The purpose of the paper is to go beyond descriptive mapping of crime data and to explore how to combine, in a formal way, different types of knowledge in the analysis of crime and disorder maps.

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  • Robert Haining & Jane Law, 2007. "Combining police perceptions with police records of serious crime areas: a modelling approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(4), pages 1019-1034, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:170:y:2007:i:4:p:1019-1034
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00477.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    2. J. H. Ratcliffe & M. J. McCullagh, 1999. "Hotbeds of crime and the search for spatial accuracy," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 385-398, December.
    3. Massimo Craglia & Robert Haining & Paola Signoretta, 2001. "Modelling High-intensity Crime Areas in English Cities," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 38(11), pages 1921-1941, October.
    4. Massimo Craglia & Robert Haining & Paola Signoretta, 2005. "Modelling High-Intensity Crime Areas: Comparing Police Perceptions with Offence/Offender Data in Sheffield," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 37(3), pages 503-524, March.
    5. M Tranmer & D G Steel, 1998. "Using Census Data to Investigate the Causes of the Ecological Fallacy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 30(5), pages 817-831, May.
    6. Massimo Craglia & Robert Haining & Paul Wiles, 2000. "A Comparative Evaluation of Approaches to Urban Crime Pattern Analysis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 37(4), pages 711-729, April.
    7. A. Hirschfield & K.J. Bowers, 1997. "The Effect of Social Cohesion on Levels of Recorded Crime in Disadvantaged Areas," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(8), pages 1275-1295, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andresen, Martin A., 2011. "Estimating the probability of local crime clusters: The impact of immediate spatial neighbors," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 394-404.
    2. David C. Wheeler & Antonio Páez & Jamie Spinney & Lance A. Waller, 2014. "A Bayesian approach to hedonic price analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(3), pages 663-683, August.
    3. Patrick Williams & Becky Clarke, 2018. "The Black Criminal Other as an Object of Social Control," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-14, November.
    4. Rashidi, Parinaz & Wang, Tiejun & Skidmore, Andrew & Mehdipoor, Hamed & Darvishzadeh, Roshanak & Ngene, Shadrack & Vrieling, Anton & Toxopeus, Albertus G., 2016. "Elephant poaching risk assessed using spatial and non-spatial Bayesian models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 338(C), pages 60-68.

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