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Theories of Choice under Ignorance and Uncertainty

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  • Kelsey, David
  • Quiggin, John

Abstract

In this paper, Knight's distinction between risk and uncertainty, and its significance for economic analysis are examined. The paper consists of a survey of some recent developments on the theory of choice under uncertainty and some applications of these theories to problems for which Bayesian Decision Theory has not proved entirely satisfactory. Two problems are examined in detail. The first is that of finance and insurance and the second is that of risk-taking behavior with special emphasis on lotteries. Copyright 1992 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Kelsey, David & Quiggin, John, 1992. "Theories of Choice under Ignorance and Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 133-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:6:y:1992:i:2:p:133-53
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2009. "Shackle And Modern Decision Theory," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 245-282, May.
    2. Feduzi, Alberto & Runde, Jochen, 2011. "The uncertain foundations of the welfare state," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 613-627.
    3. David Dequech, 2008. "Varieties of uncertainty: a survey of the economic literature," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211223070, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2007. "The weight of argument and non-additive measures: a note," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 003, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
    5. Carlo Zappia, 2008. "Non-Bayesian decision theory ante-litteram: the case of G. L. S. Shackle," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 0408, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
    6. Guarino, Pierfrancesco & Ziegler, Gabriel, 2022. "Optimism and pessimism in strategic interactions under ignorance," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 559-585.
    7. Shaw, W. Douglass & Woodward, Richard T., 2008. "Why environmental and resource economists should care about non-expected utility models," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 66-89, January.
    8. MacLaren, D., 1995. "Uncertainty AVersion and Technical Barriers to Trade: An Australian Example," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 498, The University of Melbourne.
    9. Adrian Vermeule, 2015. "Rationally Arbitrary Decisions in Administrative Law," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(S2), pages 475-507.
    10. Feduzi, Alberto, 2007. "On the relationship between Keynes's conception of evidential weight and the Ellsberg paradox," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 545-565, October.
    11. Mark J. Machina, 2014. "Ambiguity Aversion with Three or More Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3814-3840, December.
    12. Michael D. Ryall & Rachelle C. Sampson, 2017. "Contract Structure for Joint Production: Risk and Ambiguity Under Compensatory Damages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 1232-1253, April.
    13. Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja), 2016. "On Measuring Uncertainty: Snakes and Ladders," IZA Discussion Papers 10244, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. April Bernard & Osaretin Iyare & Winston Moore, 2008. "Individual Risk Propensity and Risk Background," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(3), pages 53-70, December.
    15. Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2010. "Ambiguity and uncertainty in Ellsberg and Shackle," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(3), pages 449-474.
    16. Gadzinski, Gregory & Castello, Alessio, 2020. "Fast and Frugal heuristics augmented: When machine learning quantifies Bayesian uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    17. Horan, Richard D. & Lupi, Frank, 2003. "Tradable Risk Permits To Prevent Future Introductions Of Alien Invasive Species Into The Great Lakes," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22111, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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