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Do Analysts Disclose Cash Flow Forecasts with Earnings Estimates when Earnings Quality is Low?

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  • Pawel Bilinski

Abstract

Cash flows are incrementally useful to earnings in security valuation mainly when earnings quality is low. This suggests that when earnings quality decreases, analysts will be more likely to supplement their earnings forecasts with cash flow estimates. Contrary to this prediction, we find that analysts do not disclose cash flow forecasts when the quality of earnings is low. This is because cash flow forecast accuracy depends on the accuracy of the accrual estimates and the precision of accrual forecasts decreases for firms with low quality earnings. Consequently, as earnings quality decreases, cash flow forecasts become increasingly inaccurate compared to earnings estimates. Cash flow estimates that lack reliability are not useful to investors and, consequently, unlikely to be reported by analysts. This result provides an explanation for why analysts are less likely to report cash flow estimates when earnings quality is low.

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  • Pawel Bilinski, 2014. "Do Analysts Disclose Cash Flow Forecasts with Earnings Estimates when Earnings Quality is Low?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3-4), pages 401-434, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:41:y:2014:i:3-4:p:401-434
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jbfa.12056
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    5. Hyun Min Oh & Sam Bock Park & Jong Hyun Kim, 2020. "Do Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts Improve Firm Value?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-25, October.
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    8. Pawel Bilinski, 2023. "Analyst Research Activity During the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 59(4), pages 1041-1073, December.
    9. Xiaomeng Chen & Meiting Lu & Yaowen Shan & Yizhou Zhang, 2021. "Australian evidence on analysts' cash flow forecasts: issuance, accuracy and usefulness," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 3-50, March.
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