IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v61y2021i1p499-541.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The joint information role of analysts’ cash flow and earnings forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Sandip Dhole
  • Ferdinand A. Gul
  • Sagarika Mishra
  • Ananda M. Pal

Abstract

We study whether the relative magnitudes of analysts’ cash flow and earnings forecasts convey information about the persistence and value relevance of reported earnings. We find that reported earnings are likely to be more (less) persistent and value relevant when analysts forecast relatively moderate (extreme) levels of operating cash flows, relative to earnings. We also find that the market’s response to a given earnings surprise is the strongest for moderate levels of cash flow forecasts relative to earnings. The joint information role of analysts’ cash flow and earnings forecasts persists even after controlling for the absolute accruals in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandip Dhole & Ferdinand A. Gul & Sagarika Mishra & Ananda M. Pal, 2021. "The joint information role of analysts’ cash flow and earnings forecasts," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 499-541, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:61:y:2021:i:1:p:499-541
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12581
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12581
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.12581?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Konan Chan & Louis K. C. Chan & Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Josef Lakonishok, 2006. "Earnings Quality and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1041-1082, May.
    2. Rajgopal, Shiva & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2011. "Financial reporting quality and idiosyncratic return volatility," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Holthausen, Robert W. & Watts, Ross L., 2001. "The relevance of the value-relevance literature for financial accounting standard setting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 3-75, September.
    4. Konstantinidi, Theodosia & Kraft, Arthur & Pope, Peter F., 2016. "Asymmetric persistence and the market pricing of accruals and cash flows," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65445, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Pawel Bilinski, 2014. "Do Analysts Disclose Cash Flow Forecasts with Earnings Estimates when Earnings Quality is Low?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3-4), pages 401-434, April.
    6. Sung Hwan Jung & Steven Cahan, 2015. "Are analysts' cash flow forecasts useful?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 55(3), pages 825-859, September.
    7. Freeman, Rn & Tse, S, 1989. "The Multiperiod Information-Content Of Accounting Earnings - Confirmations And Contradictions Of Previous Earnings Reports," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 49-79.
    8. Rajgopal, Shiva & Venkatachalam, Mohan, 2011. "Financial reporting quality and idiosyncratic return volatility," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-20.
    9. Dichev, Ilia D. & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2013. "Earnings quality: Evidence from the field," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 1-33.
    10. Theodosia Konstantinidi & Arthur Kraft & Peter F. Pope, 2016. "Asymmetric Persistence and the Market Pricing of Accruals and Cash Flows," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 52(1), pages 140-165, March.
    11. Basu, Sudipta, 1997. "The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 3-37, December.
    12. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    13. DeFond, Mark L. & Hung, Mingyi, 2003. "An empirical analysis of analysts' cash flow forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 73-100, April.
    14. Dechow, Patricia M. & Kothari, S. P. & L. Watts, Ross, 1998. "The relation between earnings and cash flows," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 133-168, May.
    15. Partha S. Mohanram, 2014. "Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts and the Decline of the Accruals Anomaly," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1143-1170, December.
    16. Gu, Zhaoyang & Wu, Joanna Shuang, 2003. "Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-29, April.
    17. Bushee, BJ & Noe, CF, 2000. "Corporate disclosure practices, institutional investors, and stock return volatility," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38, pages 171-202.
    18. Nilabhra Bhattacharya & Hemang Desai & Kumar Venkataraman, 2013. "Does Earnings Quality Affect Information Asymmetry? Evidence from Trading Costs," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 482-516, June.
    19. Fried, Dov & Givoly, Dan, 1982. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : A better surrogate for market expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 85-107, October.
    20. Hwee C. Tan & Baljit Sidhu, 2012. "Sources of earnings variability and their effect on earnings forecasts," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 52, pages 343-371, October.
    21. McInnis, John & Collins, Daniel W., 2011. "The effect of cash flow forecasts on accrual quality and benchmark beating," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 219-239, April.
    22. Andrew C. Call & Shuping Chen & Yen H. Tong, 2013. "Are Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Naïve Extensions of Their Own Earnings Forecasts?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 438-465, June.
    23. Jennifer Conrad & Bradford Cornell & Wayne R. Landsman, 2002. "When Is Bad News Really Bad News?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2507-2532, December.
    24. Mary E. Barth & Greg Clinch & Doron Israeli, 2016. "What do accruals tell us about future cash flows?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 768-807, September.
    25. Ivkovic, Zoran & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 2004. "The timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 433-463, September.
    26. Suresh Radhakrishnan & Shu†Ling Wu, 2014. "Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts and Accrual Mispricing," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1191-1219, December.
    27. Lawrence Brown & Kelly Huang & Arianna Pinello, 2013. "To beat or not to beat? The importance of analysts’ cash flow forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 723-752, November.
    28. Brown, Lawrence D. & Hagerman, Robert L. & Griffin, Paul A. & Zmijewski, Mark E., 1987. "Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-87, April.
    29. Nelson, Karen K. & Barth, Mary E. & Cram, Donald, 2001. "Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows," Research Papers 1594r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    30. Gilles Hilary & Charles Hsu, 2013. "Analyst Forecast Consistency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 271-297, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    2. Andrew C. Call & Max Hewitt & Jessica Watkins & Teri Lombardi Yohn, 2021. "Analysts’ annual earnings forecasts and changes to the I/B/E/S database," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-36, March.
    3. Xiaomeng Chen & Meiting Lu & Yaowen Shan & Yizhou Zhang, 2021. "Australian evidence on analysts' cash flow forecasts: issuance, accuracy and usefulness," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 3-50, March.
    4. Hyun Min Oh & Ho young Shin, 2019. "A Study on the Relationship between Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts Issuance and Accounting Information: Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    5. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    6. John R. M. Hand & Henry Laurion & Alastair Lawrence & Nicholas Martin, 2022. "Explaining firms’ earnings announcement stock returns using FactSet and I/B/E/S data feeds," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1389-1420, December.
    7. Chad R. Larson & Richard Sloan & Jenny Zha Giedt, 2018. "Defining, measuring, and modeling accruals: a guide for researchers," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 827-871, September.
    8. Pooja Kumari & Chandra Sekhar Mishra, 2020. "Equity Values and Prediction of Earnings with Disaggregation of Earnings in India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 990-1010, August.
    9. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    10. Hyun Min Oh & Sam Bock Park & Jong Hyun Kim, 2020. "Do Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts Improve Firm Value?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-25, October.
    11. Sanjay W. Bissessur & David Veenman, 2016. "Analyst information precision and small earnings surprises," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1327-1360, December.
    12. Elizabeth A. Gordon & Elaine Henry & Bjorn N. Jorgensen & Cheryl L. Linthicum, 2017. "Flexibility in cash-flow classification under IFRS: determinants and consequences," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 839-872, June.
    13. Sudip Datta & Mai Iskandar‐Datta & Vivek Singh, 2014. "Opaque financial reports and R2: Revisited," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(1), pages 10-17, January.
    14. Goncharov, Igor & Werner, Joerg R. & Zimmermann, Jochen, 2009. "Legislative demands and economic realities: Company and group accounts compared," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 334-362, December.
    15. Bingxu Fang & Ole-Kristian Hope, 2021. "Analyst teams," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 425-467, June.
    16. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Qiu, Buhui & Roh, Tai-Yong, 2022. "What drives the dispersion anomaly?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Nyanine Chuele Fonou-Dombeu & Josue Mbonigaba & Odunayo Magret Olarewaju & Bomi Cyril Nomlala, 2022. "Earnings quality measures and stock return volatility in South Africa," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Shi, Linna & Zhang, Huai & Guo, Jun, 2014. "Analyst cash flow forecasts and pricing of accruals," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 95-105.
    19. Bok Baik & Kyonghee Kim & Richard Morton & Yongoh Roh, 2016. "Analysts’ pre-tax income forecasts and the tax expense anomaly," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 559-595, June.
    20. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:61:y:2021:i:1:p:499-541. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.