IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/reaccs/v21y2016i2d10.1007_s11142-016-9349-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysts’ pre-tax income forecasts and the tax expense anomaly

Author

Listed:
  • Bok Baik

    (Seoul National University)

  • Kyonghee Kim

    (University of Missouri at Columbia)

  • Richard Morton

    (Florida State University)

  • Yongoh Roh

    (Seoul National University)

Abstract

This paper examines whether analysts’ pre-tax income forecasts mitigate the tax expense anomaly documented by Thomas and Zhang (J Account Res 49:791–821, 2011). They find that seasonal changes in quarterly income tax expense are positively related to future returns after controlling for the earnings surprise and conclude that investors underreact to value-relevant information in tax expense. When analysts issue both earnings and pre-tax income forecasts, they implicitly provide a forecast of income tax expense. We posit that this implicit forecast helps investors recognize the persistence of current tax expense surprise for future earnings. Accordingly, we expect that mispricing of tax expense will be less severe for firms with earnings and pre-tax income forecasts. As expected, we find that the presence of pre-tax income forecasts significantly weakens the positive relation between tax expense surprise and future returns, consistent with analysts’ implicit forecasts of tax expense mitigating the tax expense anomaly.

Suggested Citation

  • Bok Baik & Kyonghee Kim & Richard Morton & Yongoh Roh, 2016. "Analysts’ pre-tax income forecasts and the tax expense anomaly," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 559-595, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:21:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11142-016-9349-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-016-9349-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11142-016-9349-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11142-016-9349-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    2. Dan S. Dhaliwal & Robert H. Trezevant & Michael S. Wilkins, 2000. "Tests of a Deferred Tax Explanation of the Negative Association between the LIFO Reserve and Firm Value," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 41-59, March.
    3. Jacob Thomas & Frank X. Zhang, 2011. "Tax Expense Momentum," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 791-821, June.
    4. Bernard, Vl & Thomas, Jk, 1989. "Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift - Delayed Price Response Or Risk Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 1-36.
    5. Shuping Chen & Dawn A. Matsumoto, 2006. "Favorable versus Unfavorable Recommendations: The Impact on Analyst Access to Management‐Provided Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 657-689, September.
    6. Obrien, Pc & Bhushan, R, 1990. "Analyst Following And Institutional Ownership," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28, pages 55-76.
    7. DeFond, Mark L. & Hung, Mingyi, 2003. "An empirical analysis of analysts' cash flow forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 73-100, April.
    8. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    9. Lev, B & Thiagarajan, Sr, 1993. "Fundamental Information Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 190-215.
    10. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2003. "Limited attention, information disclosure, and financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 337-386, December.
    11. Mikhail, MB & Walther, BR & Willis, RH, 1997. "Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 131-157.
    12. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    13. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    14. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Livnat, Joshua, 2006. "Revenue surprises and stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 147-171, April.
    15. David Hirshleifer & Sonya S. Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2011. "Limited Investor Attention and Stock Market Misreactions to Accounting Information," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 35-73.
    16. Dan S. Dhaliwal & Cristi A. Gleason & Lillian F. Mills, 2004. "Last†Chance Earnings Management: Using the Tax Expense to Meet Analysts' Forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(2), pages 431-459, June.
    17. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    18. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    19. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    20. Partha S. Mohanram, 2014. "Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts and the Decline of the Accruals Anomaly," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1143-1170, December.
    21. Abarbanell, JS & Bushee, BJ, 1997. "Fundamental analysis, future earnings, and stock prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24.
    22. Hanlon, Michelle & Laplante, Stacie Kelley & Shevlin, Terry, 2005. "Evidence for the Possible Information Loss of Conforming Book Income and Taxable Income," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 407-442, October.
    23. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    24. McInnis, John & Collins, Daniel W., 2011. "The effect of cash flow forecasts on accrual quality and benchmark beating," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 219-239, April.
    25. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    26. Mark T. Bradshaw & Scott A. Richardson & Richard G. Sloan, 2001. "Do Analysts and Auditors Use Information in Accruals?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 45-74, June.
    27. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    28. Jeremiah Green & John R. M. Hand & Mark T. Soliman, 2011. "Going, Going, Gone? The Apparent Demise of the Accruals Anomaly," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 797-816, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Müller, Raphael & Spengel, Christoph & Vay, Heiko, 2020. "On the determinants and effects of corporate tax transparency: Review of an emerging literature," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-063, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Ostad, Parastoo & Mella, Javier, 2023. "The value relevance of corporate tax expenses in the presence of partisanship: International evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Song, Huimin & Tao, Xuedan & Wang, Huabing (Barbara) & Zhang, Jinkang & Zhang, Linlin, 2024. "Does mandatory tax disclosure mitigate tax expense anomaly? Evidence from FIN 48," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Linna & Zhang, Huai & Guo, Jun, 2014. "Analyst cash flow forecasts and pricing of accruals," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 95-105.
    2. Xiaomeng Chen & Meiting Lu & Yaowen Shan & Yizhou Zhang, 2021. "Australian evidence on analysts' cash flow forecasts: issuance, accuracy and usefulness," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(1), pages 3-50, March.
    3. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    4. Bin Miao & Siew Hong Teoh & Zinan Zhu, 2016. "Limited attention, statement of cash flow disclosure, and the valuation of accruals," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 473-515, June.
    5. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    6. Pandit, Shailendra & Willis, Richard H. & Zhou, Ling, 2012. "Security analysts, cash flow forecasts, and turnover," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 874-890.
    7. David P. Weber, 2009. "Do Analysts and Investors Fully Appreciate the Implications of Book†Tax Differences for Future Earnings?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(4), pages 1175-1206, December.
    8. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    9. Mei-Chen Lin & J. Jimmy Yang, 2023. "Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1057-1091, October.
    10. Lee, Bryan Byung-Hee & Lee, Jay Junghun, 2024. "Financial statement comparability and analysts’ optimism for accruals," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3).
    11. Jung, Boochun & Shane, Philip B. & Sunny Yang, Yanhua, 2012. "Do financial analysts' long-term growth forecasts matter? Evidence from stock recommendations and career outcomes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 55-76.
    12. Jiao, Yawen, 2024. "Managing decision fatigue: Evidence from analysts’ earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1).
    13. Yu, Fang (Frank), 2008. "Analyst coverage and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 245-271, May.
    14. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    15. Jacob Thomas & Frank Zhang, 2007. "Tax Expense Surprises and Future Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2531, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Feb 2008.
    16. Peng-Chia Chiu & Timothy D. Haight, 2020. "Investor learning, earnings signals, and stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 671-698, February.
    17. Eli Amir & Itay Kama & Shai Levi, 2015. "Conditional Persistence of Earnings Components and Accounting Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(7-8), pages 801-825, September.
    18. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 23394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bingxu Fang & Ole-Kristian Hope, 2021. "Analyst teams," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 425-467, June.
    20. Balakrishnan, Karthik & Bartov, Eli & Faurel, Lucile, 2010. "Post loss/profit announcement drift," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 20-41, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pre-tax income forecasts; Disaggregated forecasts; Tax expense anomaly; Analysts’ forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:21:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11142-016-9349-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.