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Assessing the Vulnerability to Price Spikes in Agricultural Commodity Markets

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  • Athanasios Triantafyllou
  • George Dotsis
  • Alexandros Sarris

Abstract

We examine empirically the predictability of conditions associated with a higher probability of a price spike in agricultural commodity markets. We find that the forward spread is the most significant indicator of probable price jumps in maize, wheat and soybeans futures markets, a result which is in line with the ‘Theory of Storage’. We additionally show that some option‐implied variables add significant predictive power when added to the more standard information variable set. Overall, the estimated probabilities of large price increases from our probit models exhibit significant correlations with historical sudden market upheavals in agricultural markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Athanasios Triantafyllou & George Dotsis & Alexandros Sarris, 2020. "Assessing the Vulnerability to Price Spikes in Agricultural Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 631-651, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:71:y:2020:i:3:p:631-651
    DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12377
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    3. Andrew M. McKenzie & Michael R. Thomsen & Michael K. Adjemian, 2022. "Characterizing implied volatility functions from agricultural options markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(5), pages 1605-1624, October.
    4. Chemerys, Vasyl & Dushka, Vitalii & Dorosh, Mariana & Maksym, Volodymyr, 2020. "Export potential of the livestock breeding industry of Ukraine," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 6(3), September.
    5. Sun, Yiqun & Ji, Hao & Cai, Xiurong & Li, Jiangchen, 2023. "Joint extreme risk of energy prices-evidence from European energy markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    6. Bermpei, Theodora & Ferrara, Laurent & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2024. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Reinhard Ellwanger & Stephen Snudden, 2023. "Futures Prices are Useful Predictors of the Spot Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(4), pages 65-82, July.
    8. Liao, Wenting & Ma, Jun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2024. "Commodity returns co-movement, uncertainty shocks, and the US dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

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