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Assessing the Potential Impact of Avian Influenza on Poultry in West Africa: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Liangzhi You
  • Xinshen Diao

Abstract

We analyse the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in Nigeria, using a spatial equilibrium simulation model. Depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be a loss of about 4% of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect – consumers’ reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices – is generally larger than the direct effect in our simulation. We estimate that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21% and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst‐case scenario occurs. The negative impact would be unevenly distributed in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously affected. The study shows that, while most attention has focused on preventing a global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at the national, regional and local levels, because AI could potentially have a major negative impact on the poultry industry and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Liangzhi You & Xinshen Diao, 2007. "Assessing the Potential Impact of Avian Influenza on Poultry in West Africa: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 348-367, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:58:y:2007:i:2:p:348-367
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-9552.2007.00099.x
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    1. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    1. Fachinello, Arlei Luiz & Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza, 2008. "Análise Dos Reflexos Econômicos Derivados De Surtos Da Gripe Aviária No Brasil Utilizando Um Modelo De Equilíbrio Geral Computável," 46th Congress, July 20-23, 2008, Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil 110071, Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administracao e Sociologia Rural (SOBER).
    2. Thurlow, James, 2010. "Implications of avian flu for economic development in Kenya:," IFPRI discussion papers 951, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Oparinde, Adewale & Hodge, Ian, 2011. "Building livelihood resilience: a case study of factors affecting farm households’ adoption of coping and adaptive strategies in rural Nigeria," MPRA Paper 39162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lan Yi & Jianping Tao & Caifeng Tan & Zhongkun Zhu, 2019. "Avian Influenza, Public Opinion, and Risk Spillover: Measurement, Theory, and Evidence from China’s Broiler Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-44, April.
    5. Birol, Ekin & Asare-Marfo, Dorene & Ayele, Gezahegn & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi & Ndirangu, Lydia & Okpukpara, Benjamin & Roy, Devesh & Yakhshilikov, Yorbol, 2010. "Investigating the role of poultry in livelihoods and the impact of avian flu on livelihoods outcomes in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Nigeria," IFPRI discussion papers 1011, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Okike, Iheanacho & Bett, Bernard, 2014. "An expost economic assessment of the intervention against highly pathogenic avian influenza in Nigeria," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, April.
    7. Ning Xie & Yurong Zhu & Heng Liu & Feng Ye & Xiaochun Liu, 2024. "Impacts of Different Epidemic Outbreaks on Broiler Industry Chain Price Fluctuations in China: Implications for Sustainable Food Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-17, July.
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