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The impact of real wage and mortality fluctuations on fertility and nuptiality in precensus England

Author

Listed:
  • Roy E. Bailey

    (Department of Economics, University of Essex, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK (e-mail: rbailey@essex.ac.uk; Tel.:)

  • Marcus J. Chambers

    (Department of Economics, University of Essex, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK (e-mail: mchamb@essex.ac.uk; Tel.:)

Abstract

This paper explores the responses of fertility and nuptiality to fluctuations in real wages and mortality that can be inferred from annual series of English historical data over the period 1542 to 1800. The paper begins with a review of the time series properties of the data and summarizes the long-term equilibrium relationships identified in previous work. A Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) is then proposed to study the observed short-term fluctuations in a way that is compatible with long-term equilibria. Following estimation of the parameters of the VECM, an investigation is made of the impact of shocks to real wages and mortality on demographic variables as measured by generalized impulse responses and persistence profiles.

Suggested Citation

  • Roy E. Bailey & Marcus J. Chambers, 1998. "The impact of real wage and mortality fluctuations on fertility and nuptiality in precensus England," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 413-434.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:11:y:1998:i:3:p:413-434
    Note: Received: 24 September 1997 / Accepted: 12 December 1997
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dănuţ-Vasile Jemna & Mihaela David, 2018. "Post-transitional regional fertility in Romania," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(57), pages 1733-1776.
    2. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    3. Peter Grajzl & Peter Murrell, 2022. "Did Caselaw Foster England’s Economic Development during the Industrial Revolution? Data and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10088, CESifo.
    4. Francisco Climent Diranzo & Robert Meneu Gaya, "undated". "Relaciones de equilibrio entre demografía y crecimiento económico en Espana," Studies on the Spanish Economy 163, FEDEA.
    5. Grajzl, Peter & Murrell, Peter, 2024. "Caselaw and England's economic performance during the Industrial Revolution: Data and evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 145-165.
    6. Marcus J. Chambers & Roy E. Bailey, 1999. "A Statistical Analysis of Wheat Price Fluctuations in England: 1685–1850," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 564-588, September.
    7. Alam, Shamma Adeeb & Pörtner, Claus C., 2018. "Income shocks, contraceptive use, and timing of fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 96-103.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic history · economic history · error correction mechanisms;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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