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The future of work: Meeting the global challenges of demographic change and automation

Author

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  • Ana L. ABELIANSKY
  • Eda ALGUR
  • David E. BLOOM
  • Klaus PRETTNER

Abstract

This article explores future job creation needs under conditions of demographic, economic and technological change. The authors first estimate the implications for job creation during 2020–30 of population growth, changes in labour force participation and the achievement of target unemployment rates, by age and sex. Second, they analyse the job creation needs by country income group and, lastly, examine the effects of accelerated automation. Projections indicate that shifting demographics will account for a far greater share of the estimated global need for 340 million jobs over 2020–30 than automation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana L. ABELIANSKY & Eda ALGUR & David E. BLOOM & Klaus PRETTNER, 2020. "The future of work: Meeting the global challenges of demographic change and automation," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 159(3), pages 285-306, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intlab:v:159:y:2020:i:3:p:285-306
    DOI: 10.1111/ilr.12168
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Bloom & Klaus Prettner & Jamel Saadaoui & Mario Veruete, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and the skill premium," Papers 2311.09255, arXiv.org.
    2. Premilla D’Cruz & Shuili Du & Ernesto Noronha & K. Praveen Parboteeah & Hannah Trittin-Ulbrich & Glen Whelan, 2022. "Technology, Megatrends and Work: Thoughts on the Future of Business Ethics," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 879-902, October.
    3. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2023. "Automation and inequality with taxes and transfers," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 70(1), pages 68-100, February.
    4. Arthur Jacobs & Freddy Heylen, 2021. "Demographic change, secular stagnation and inequality: automation as a blessing?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1030, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Rebecca Mitchell & Yun Shen & Lan Snell, 2022. "The future of work: a systematic literature review," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2667-2686, June.
    6. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus & Stöllinger, Roman, 2023. "Infection Risk at Work, Automatability, and Employment," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 352, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    7. Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Stagnant wages in the face of rising labor productivity: The potential role of industrial robots," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    8. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    9. Catarina Peralta & Pedro Mazeda Gil, 2021. "Automation, Education, and Population: Dynamic Effects in an OLG Growth and Fertility Model," CEF.UP Working Papers 2102, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    10. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Beulmann, Matthias & Prettner, Klaus, 2024. "Are they coming for us? Industrial robots and the mental health of workers," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).

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