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Is an Army of Robots Marching on Chinese Jobs?

Author

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  • Giuntella, Osea

    (University of Pittsburgh)

  • Wang, Tianyi

    (University of Toronto)

Abstract

A handful of studies have investigated the effects of robots on workers in advanced economies. According to a recent report from the World Bank (2016), 1.8 billion jobs in developing countries are susceptible to automation. Given the inability of labor markets to adjust to rapid changes, there is a growing concern that the effect of automation and robotization in emerging economies may increase inequality and social unrest. Yet, we still know very little about the impact of robots in developing countries. In this paper we analyze the effects of exposure to industrial robots in the Chinese labor market. Using aggregate data from Chinese prefectural cities (2000-2016) and individual longitudinal data from China, we find a large negative impact of robot exposure on employment and wages of Chinese workers. Effects are concentrated in the state-owned sector and are larger among low-skilled, male, and prime-age and older workers. Furthermore, we find evidence that exposure to robots affected internal mobility and increased the number of labor-related strikes and protests.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuntella, Osea & Wang, Tianyi, 2019. "Is an Army of Robots Marching on Chinese Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 12281, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gihleb, Rania & Giuntella, Osea & Stella, Luca & Wang, Tianyi, 2022. "Industrial robots, Workers’ safety, and health," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Dario Guarascio & Alessandro Piccirillo & Jelena Reljic, 2024. "Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis," LEM Papers Series 2024/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Calì, Massimiliano & Presidente, Giorgio, 2021. "Robots For Economic Development," GLO Discussion Paper Series 942, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Abeliansky, Ana & Algur, Eda & Bloom, David E. & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The Future of Work: Challenges for Job Creation Due to Global Demographic Change and Automation," IZA Discussion Papers 12962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Huang, Keqi & Liu, Qiren & Tang, Chengjian, 2023. "Which firms benefit from robot adoption? Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Vrolijk, Kasper, 2023. "How does globalisation affect social cohesion?," IDOS Discussion Papers 5/2023, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    7. Qiren Liu & Sen Luo & Robert Seamans, 2023. "Pain or Anxiety? The Health Consequences of Rising Robot Adoption in China," Papers 2301.10675, arXiv.org.
    8. Genz, Sabrina & Schnabel, Claus, 2021. "Digging into the Digital Divide: Workers' Exposure to Digitalization and Its Consequences for Individual Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 14649, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Haohui Caron Chen & Xun Li & Morgan Frank & Xiaozhen Qin & Weipan Xu & Manuel Cebrian & Iyad Rahwan, 2022. "Automation impacts on China’s polarized job market," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 517-535, May.
    10. Massimo Anelli & Osea Giuntella & Luca Stella, 2024. "Robots, Marriageable Men, Family, and Fertility," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(2), pages 443-469.
    11. Jurkat, Anne & Klump, Rainer & Schneider, Florian, 2023. "Robots and Wages: A Meta-Analysis," EconStor Preprints 274156, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Cali,Massimiliano & Presidente,Giorgio, 2021. "Automation and Manufacturing Performance in a Developing Country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9653, The World Bank.
    13. Bekhtiar, Karim, 2024. "Robotization, Internal Migration and Rural Decline," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302396, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2024. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 259-288.
    15. Duan, Dingyun & Chen, Shaojian & Feng, Zongxian & Li, Jun, 2023. "Industrial robots and firm productivity," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 388-406.
    16. Matej Belin, 2021. "Does Robots´Reach Exceed Their Grasp? Differential Impacts of Robot Adoption and Spillover Effects on Workers in the Czech Republic," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp688, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    17. Wang, Ting & Zhang, Yi & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Robot adoption and employment adjustment: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Anelli, Massimo & Giuntella, Osea & Stella, Luca, 2019. "Robots, Labor Markets, and Family Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 12820, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Ali İhsan Çelen, 2020. "Chinese Labors’ Movements with their Basic Dynamics: Multiple Theoretical Analysis of the Post-2008 Period," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(79), pages 469-507, December.
    20. Christian Gunadi & Hanbyul Ryu, 2021. "Does the rise of robotic technology make people healthier?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 2047-2062, September.
    21. Chen, Shih-Chih & Jiang, Wei & Ma, Yin, 2020. "Decent work in a transition economy: An empirical study of employees in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    22. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 110390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Ana L. ABELIANSKY & Eda ALGUR & David E. BLOOM & Klaus PRETTNER, 2020. "The future of work: Meeting the global challenges of demographic change and automation," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 159(3), pages 285-306, September.
    24. Fan, Haichao & Hu, Yichuan & Tang, Lixin, 2021. "Labor costs and the adoption of robots in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 608-631.
    25. Yanying Wang & Qingyang Wu, 2024. "Robots, firm relocation, and air pollution: unveiling the unintended spatial spillover effects of emerging technology," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging economies; labor markets; robots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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